Export decline

THE trend is unmistakable. The sharp fall of 20.4pc in Pakistan’s export shipments last month underscores that the slump stems from structural factors and should no longer be dismissed as a temporary setback. Trade data shows that December marks the fifth consecutive monthly export decline — and the sharpest one — in the first half of the present fiscal. The sustained export contraction heightens the risks to the nation’s external sector recovery as growing imports threaten to erode the gains achieved through demand compression over the past two years. Imports crossing the $6bn mark last month for the first time during the current fiscal year signal that a policy shift towards trade normalisation and liberalisation have revived import demand faster than anticipated. In absolute terms, the $118m boost in imports is quite modest given the country’s size and consumption trends. But when juxtaposed with the sharp contraction in exports, it pushes the monthly trade deficit up by 25pc to $3.7bn. The six-month cumulative picture of trade imbalance is even more worrisome. The $19.2bn trade deficit posted in the July-December period is 35pc higher than last year.

Pakistan’s poor export performance has always remained the weakest link in its external sector stability chain. It has become even more pronounced in recent years amid drying foreign official and private flows, which successive governments used to prop up the feeble balance-of-payments position. The State Bank may use strong remittances and its dollar purchases to finance the trade gap and boost reserves for as long as it can. But reliance on this strategy to offset a structurally widening trade gap has its own risks as it leaves the external account vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and host-country labour market changes. Moreover, sustained intervention to build reserves tightens domestic liquidity and fuels exchange rate pressures. The deteriorating export performance is not a threat only for external sector stability; it also forces policymakers to suppress growth to ward off yet another balance-of-payments crisis. If anything, the latest trade numbers expose a disconnect between stabilisation and sustainability. The economy has moved from crisis management, but has yet to transition to an export-led growth path. Without energy, industrial and trade reforms to improve export competitiveness, the current economic recovery will remain fragile and growth subdued.

Published in Dawn, January 5th, 2026

Playing host

THE new year has begun on a promising note for women’s cricket in Pakistan. Pakistan Cricket Board chairman Mohsin Naqvi has set himself the target of delivering a memorable Women’s Twenty20 World Cup in 2028. The tournament was awarded to Pakistan as compensation after it allowed India to play its Champions Trophy matches last year on neutral venues; it will be the first major ICC women’s tournament hosted by the country. It will also be the first World Cup Pakistan will host since it co-hosted the 1996 Men’s One-day International World Cup. Mr Naqvi stated this week that the upgradation work in stadiums across the country was aimed at holding the women’s tournament in a befitting manner. Playing host will give a boost to women’s cricket in the country; Pakistan has already witnessed the positive impact it has on the team. Pakistan held the qualifiers for last year’s Women’s ODI World Cup and won all the matches to book a spot at the tournament in India and Sri Lanka. Home-ground advantage then spurred India to their maiden Women’s World Cup crown last year.

But the impact of hosting goes far beyond performance on the pitch. Most importantly, it inspires future generations. Witnessing a tournament so closely will inspire young girls to take up the sport, increasing participation from the grassroots. Not only that, it will also bring increased investment to women’s cricket, helping build a stronger structure, and lay a solid foundation for growth. World Cup hosting leaves behind a legacy and it is heartening to see that Mr Naqvi has made it his primary objective. With the Women’s T20 World Cup in focus, it is also expected that the development will be a push towards the launch of the women’s edition of the Pakistan Super League. That will be a significant step towards equal opportunity and pay parity between men and women players in the country.

Published in Dawn, January 5th, 2026

More than a number

MOVING into 2026, Pakistan stands as the world’s fifth most populous country, with more than 255m people. This fact is often viewed as a crisis to be dealt with. Yet population size itself is not the problem. The real question is whether the state treats population dynamics as a liability to be endured or a strategic force to be governed in pursuit of development. There were signs in 2025 that thinking has begun to shift. As noted by the United Nations Population Fund, improvements in reproductive health services, population data systems and youth engagement point to a growing recognition that demography sits at the heart of economic planning, social stability and climate resilience. Better coordination between federal and provincial authorities also suggests a welcome, if tentative, move away from fragmented policymaking. Yet challenges prevail. Maternal mortality is still high, millions of women lack access to family planning, early marriages persist and gender-based violence remains widespread — issues which shape fertility trends, labour participation and human capital formation. In climate-exposed districts, weak health systems and limited access to services deepen vulnerability, reinforcing inequalities. The evidence leaves little room for debate. Expanding sexual and reproductive health services, keeping girls in school, and enabling women’s participation in the economy are among the most effective ways to support informed reproductive choices and balanced population growth. Countries that have neglected these fundamentals have paid the price in stalled growth and social strain.

Where Pakistan continues to falter is governance. Policies are announced and commitments made, but delivery is weak and accountability thinner still. This is most visible in fiscal planning. The NFC award relies overwhelmingly on population size, rewarding headcounts rather than outcomes. The result is a system that does little to incentivise better health, education, or gender equality. A forward-looking state would reward progress in lower maternal mortality, higher female labour participation, improved education outcomes, and greater climate resilience. The new year offers a window. Moving from promises to progress will require political will, sustained domestic financing and strong oversight. Population is already shaping Pakistan’s future. The challenge now is to govern it as an asset, not merely count it as a problem.

Published in Dawn, January 4th, 2026

Unwanted, unneeded

THE festive mood from the New Year’s celebrations had not even begun to wear off, when the world appeared ready to plunge headfirst into another round of violence and war.

With protests against economic hardships turning into a bout of serious civil unrest in Iran, US President Donald Trump had on Friday issued an unwarranted threat to “respond” if Iran’s security forces killed protesters, prompting Tehran to respond with the ‘warning’ that such a development would destabilise the entire region. What was being said between the lines does not need to be spelt out for anyone.

The two countries had come face to face during the Twelve-Day War between Iran and Israel in June this past year, when the US had bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, and Iran had retaliated by hitting America’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar before a ceasefire was reached.

Unsurprisingly, Israel also features prominently in the recent flare-up between them.

But Mr Trump’s interventionist aspirations have not been limited to Iran.

On Saturday, after a night of bombs and terror in Venezuela, the US president announced on his social media platform that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, had been captured and flown out of the country.

A US official later told the media that special forces troops had taken part in America’s first direct intervention in Latin America since 1989.

It is worth mentioning that Mr Maduro had just days ago attempted to engage with Mr Trump on narco-trafficking and illegal migration, both of which had been sore issues in Mr Trump’s relationship with his southern neighbour. However, Mr Maduro personally believed that Mr Trump was really after Venezuela’s considerable oil reserves — a perception that was reinforced by multiple leaders from the Trump administration making varying claims on Venezuela’s resources.

The Venezuelan context is important for Iran and, indeed, the Middle East. It establishes that there are no limits or international laws when the powerful decide to seize what they want.

There is no doubt that the Iranian people are unhappy with their government for the economic misery they have been suffering. But whatever their grievances, they are for the people of Iran to settle amongst themselves.

That Israel is attempting to fan the unrest and the US is publicly providing guarantees to protesters suggests that the old playbook is being used again: yet another country is to be destabilised as an insurance policy for the state of Israel. The wider region and Iran’s neighbours, in particular, should take a stand against such interventionism, lest they want chaos and unrest at their own doorsteps.

Whatever the Iranian government’s failings, it has kept order despite being placed under immense economic strain by those now pretending to be friends of its people.

Published in Dawn, January 4th, 2026

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OICCI proposals

THE proposals of the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce & Industry, relating to Pakistan’s march towards a liberal electricity market, do not simply reflect the OICCI’s anxiety over the way reform is being executed. They also test the government’s willingness to transition to a robust Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract Market and power-wheeling framework. They expose a disconnect between reform aims and execution, and a power sector hampered by lack of regulatory clarity, transparency, predictable pricing and credible market institutions. It is this disconnect that worries investors. Their anxiety is reflected in OICCI’s insistence for “actionable reforms”, as poorly planned and badly executed liberalisation, marked by opaqueness, weak institutional capacity and policy reversals, will further erode investors’ trust while constraining competitiveness.

At the centre of the proposals is the demand for a cost-effective and transparent wheeling framework, with charges unbundled into clearly defined transmission, distribution, system operations and system loss components. This must restore price predictability for long-term contracts. Another proposal calls for the gradual expansion of the wheeling allocation based on improvements in grid performance, settlement efficiency and regulatory readiness. Premature scaling in a struggling system risks destabilising Discos’ finances and undermining market confidence. Charges must balance investor affordability with the financial sustainability of Discos and the broader power sector. Excessive wheeling costs will blunt competitiveness, while under-recovery will result in surcharges. Equally crucial for success is grid modernisation. Yet another important proposal concerns integration of climate and trade considerations into power reforms. Facilitating green bilateral contracts under CTBCM would allow foreign and export-oriented investors to access renewable electricity and manage carbon exposure. In this context, electricity market reform is more than an energy policy issue; it becomes an export survival strategy. The proposals also stress a single-window, time-bound regulatory approval framework across government institutions, without which even well-designed market reforms risk failure. They offer the authorities the choice of either pursuing rules-based liberalisation or continuing with piecemeal reforms that impede investment.

Published in Dawn, January 3rd, 2026

Dangerous celebrations

EACH New Year’s Eve, as fireworks light the sky in much of the world, Pakistan witnesses a darker ritual. Bullets are fired into the air and return to earth with lethal consequences. This new year, in Karachi alone, at least 28 people, including a one-year-old, were injured by stray bullets during celebratory aerial firing. These are not freak accidents but predictable outcomes of a violent practice that has become normalised in our public life. A society that marks joy with gunfire must confront what that says about itself. Celebration should unite communities, not terrorise them. Yet every year, families spend the first hours of the new year rushing loved ones to emergency wards, praying that a random bullet has not permanently altered their lives.

Guns should not be symbols of festivity when they are instruments of death. That their use has become routine on national holidays and religious occasions reflects how casually violence has seeped into social expression. Warnings from police officials and appeals by public figures, have clearly not been enough. Innocent citizens, sleeping, walking, or standing on rooftops, continue to pay the price for reckless thrills. Normalising such behaviour erodes claims to civic responsibility and reveals a troubling indifference to human life. Responsibility lies with the state to move beyond ritual condemnation and take sustained, visible action. Laws against aerial firing exist, but enforcement is weak. Penalties must be strengthened, prosecutions made swift, and offenders punished. Investment in modern surveillance is critical, including expanded CCTV coverage, to identify perpetrators rather than relying on chance arrests. Enforcement, however, cannot work in isolation. A sustained mass awareness campaign is needed through public advertisements, schools and TV programming that shows the human cost of celebratory gunfire. A new year should begin with hope, not hospital admissions.

Published in Dawn, January 3rd, 2026

Just a handshake

IT was a handshake that sent a ripple through the region. On Wednesday, National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq and India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar shook hands in Dhaka, where they had both arrived to attend the state funeral of former Bangladeshi prime minister Khaleda Zia, who passed away earlier this week. It was, doubtless, a significant moment which invited attention across three countries.

The Chief Adviser of the Government of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, made note of it in a post on his X account, which stated that the two men had “exchanged greetings” during their interaction ahead of the funeral programme organised for Ms Zia. Pictures of the two, sombrely attired for the occasion, accompanied his post.

Indian media downplayed the event, framing the handshake as a usual nicety at such events and therefore inconsequential. The Pakistani media, noting that it was the first high-level contact between the two nations since the May hostilities, ran with the statement issued by the National Assembly Secretariat, underlining the part where it claimed that the handshake and pleasantries had been initiated by Mr Jaishankar, who reportedly approached Mr Sadiq with an informal acknowledgement.

One reason for the interest could be that this is a slow time of the year for newsrooms. Another could be that anticipation has continuously been high for what happens next between Pakistan and India. Yet, given the prevailing atmosphere, not much can or should be read into a mere handshake.

Interestingly, the NA Secretariat’s statement on the ‘handshake’ notes that Pakistan has “consistently emphasised dialogue, restraint and cooperative measures, including proposals for peace talks and joint investigations into the alleged false flag Pahalgam incident, in order to prevent unprovoked aggression and escalation”. Can this be read as a signal to New Delhi that the door to talks remains open?

Unfortunately, the hostile rhetoric and posturing from next door show no signs of relenting. Recent reports regarding plans for controversial hydropower projects by India, which would violate the Indus Waters Treaty, are designed to be provocations for further tensions between the two states.

There is, without question, a strong need for temperatures to be brought down. But handshakes and exchanging pleasantries alone will not make that happen. It will require earnest effort, especially on New Delhi’s part, and diplomacy at the highest levels before a thaw can be expected.

Published in Dawn, January 2nd, 2026

NYC’s new mayor

ZOHRAN Mamdani’s swearing in as mayor of New York City places him at the helm of one of the world’s most complex cities. His rise has been rapid, polarising and noted globally, and these factors will shape the challenges ahead. Few modern mayors have assumed office amid such sharp political divisions or intense scrutiny, particularly with limited experience in executive public office. For Mr Mamdani, the margin for error is thin. NYC is not a forgiving political environment. Its residents form strong opinions early and rarely revise them generously. The mayor’s first 100 days will therefore matter disproportionately, not only for policy outcomes but for perception. Competence, clarity and discipline will be as important as ideology. Early mistakes such as administrative confusion, or messaging errors are likely to be magnified by critics. Mr Mamdani appears to understand this reality. His recent, low-key engagement with President Donald Trump suggested a willingness to separate symbolism from governance and to act pragmatically when required. That instinct will be essential. Many of his flagship promises, including taxing the wealthy to fund childcare, freezing rents, making buses free or lowering food costs depend on cooperation from the governor and state legislature, institutions not naturally inclined to embracing democratic socialism.

This gap between ambition and power is well known. Left-leaning reform efforts have often stumbled when they meet budget limits, legal barriers and entrenched economic systems. Yet dismissing Mr Mamdani’s programme as naive would miss its deeper logic. Many of his proposals are modest, practical and intensely local: improved access to affordable food, streamlined procurement and reduced police contact with vulnerable populations. One magazine writing about Mr Mamdani quoted writer Raymond Williams: “To be truly radical is to make hope possible rather than despair convincing.” The new mayor’s task is to translate mobilisation into governance and to do it patiently and credibly — in full view of a sceptical city.

Published in Dawn, January 2nd, 2026

Climate resilience

THE Asian Development Bank’s latest climate resilience financing for Pakistan should reinforce the country’s efforts towards building longer-term resilience to protect its people and economy from the adverse impacts of climate change. The $180.5m funding for Sindh addresses one of the country’s most neglected climate frontiers along its coastal belt where recurrent flooding and sea intrusion have steadily eroded livelihoods, undermined food security and impacted biodiversity, forcing residents to migrate. By focusing on integrated water resource management, flood risk reduction and restoration of nature-based coastal defences, the project will embrace ecosystem-based solutions, benefiting over 3.8m people. The project will simultaneously focus on institutional strengthening and community-level strategic planning for durable impact and continuity. The $124m assistance for Punjab seeks to tackle a different structural problem. It will give small farmers access to climate-smart machinery, introduce circular agriculture practices to reduce residue burning, establish testing and training facilities and empower thousands of women to enhance farm productivity and climate resilience in 30 districts.

The ADB funding for these projects indicates growing realisation on the part of both international lenders and authorities here that climate change has emerged as one of the biggest economic and governance challenges — it is not merely an environmental issue — for a nation that has repeatedly been hit by devastating climate-induced disasters in the last couple of decades. Such projects are an investment in the country’s economic future and stability. That both projects have been structured in such a way that the provincial governments also chip in from their own resources on top of ADB financing, no matter how modest that contribution ($20m from Sindh and $5m from Punjab), will ensure their buy-in to the schemes. Their limited scale notwithstanding, the schemes underscore what needs to be pursued for climate adaptation and where money must be put for making communities climate resilient. They have rightly been described as ‘transformative’ for communities that stand to benefit. However, for these initiatives to have a durable impact, the authorities must ensure that the funds are spent prudently and transparently. Our development history is littered with well-funded projects that faltered midway due to weak execution, opacity and corruption. The challenge now is to ensure that the promise of climate finance is matched by institutional reform, transparency and sustained political commitment.

Published in Dawn, January 1st, 2026

Deadly drains

FROM Karachi, a familiar story: another child dead, swallowed by an uncovered manhole while playing. This Monday, eight-year-old Dilbar became the eighth child to die in an uncovered Karachi drain in the year 2025. Nineteen adults also suffered the same fate. When last a child had fallen into an uncovered manhole — just weeks earlier, in fact — there had been an outpouring of grief, as well as anger against Karachi’s civic authorities. Even then, those protesting were callously told not to ‘politicise’ the issue. This time, the Karachi mayor repeated the phrase in response to what he perceived as a needlessly hostile question. He should not have. The death of so many children to a very preventable cause is not something that can be easily overlooked or written off. There are many residents of the city who feel they have been condemned to live in misery due to the consistent failures of Karachi’s authorities. If nothing else, they deserve empathy.

A similar example from elsewhere in the country stands out. After a child similarly fell to his death in an open manhole in Lodhran the same month, the deputy commissioner of the district was ordered transferred. Both the contractor responsible for the open manhole and the senior sub-engineer of Lodhran’s district council were booked. The chief officer of the district council was surrendered to their parent department, with the recommendation that they be suspended. The provincial government announced an AI system that could use security cameras to identify civic issues like open manholes “to strengthen rapid response capabilities and advance smart city management”. In short, visible action was taken at multiple levels to iterate that the authorities cared that a life had been lost. This is close to the kind of response citizens expect and appreciate. Those responsible for people’s lives need to be empathetic and demonstrate how they intend to address public concerns, not isolate themselves from their criticism.

Published in Dawn, January 1st, 2026

Delayed local polls

PREDICTABLE as it was in the wake of the Punjab government’s passage of a new local government law, the Election Commission’s decision to postpone local polls in the province underscores a troubling pattern of democratic backsliding. The ECP’s move to withdraw its barely three-week-old delimitation schedule — issued to enable elections in December — at the provincial authorities’ ‘request’ is not merely an act of expediency, it is another setback to the devolution process. Punjab has effectively been without local bodies after the then PTI administration dissolved them in 2019. This is so, despite an apex court decision to restore them to complete the remainder of their term. Ever since, successive governments have found one pretext or another to delay polls. Regrettably, the ECP has, willingly or otherwise, been complicit in this persistent denial of local representation to the citizens.

The ECP has justified its decision to delay the local polls on procedural grounds, arguing that the provincial government needs time to frame rules under the new law. However, its failure to announce a firm election date makes it evident that local democracy is no more a priority for the ECP than it is for the ruling PML-N. Little wonder that few believe the ECP’s assurance that no further extension will be granted to the provincial government for organising the local polls. How can a body that failed to assert its authority to hold the general elections within the constitutionally mandated period now be trusted with keeping its promises? Had the ECP stuck with its commitment to organise the polls in December rather than scrapping the delimitation schedule entirely, it could have helped somewhat salvage its reputation. That said, the absence of local democracy in the province has had significant political and socioeconomic implications. It is not as if the local polls held under the new law, which strips local representatives of the few administrative and financial powers they had under the previous one, will change the people’s lives, but it would be a stride towards grassroots participatory democracy in Punjab. Even though the Constitution is largely vague on the question of devolution to local bodies, it clearly gives the ECP the mandate to organise local elections within 120 days of the expiry of their term. In the end, the mandate belongs to those who want to use it.

Published in Dawn, October 23rd, 2025

Hope after defeat

FOR the Pakistan women’s cricket team, the writing was on the wall after South Africa amassed 312-9 in 40 overs of their rain-truncated Women’s World Cup match in Colombo on Tuesday. Another downpour meant that the target was revised to 234 in 20 overs, after Pakistan had been reduced to 35-4 in 10 overs. The victory needed to stay in the race to the semi-finals, was not going to come; their fate was sealed when they finished at 83-7. Having seen their last two fixtures washed out, Fatima Sana’s side had got off to an ideal start with the skipper herself giving them an early breakthrough against South Africa. But after the rains brought delay, it was all South Africa once play resumed. For Pakistan, that has been the story of their tournament. Having started the tournament with tame losses against Bangladesh and India, they were in dreamland against Australia when they reduced the defending champions to 76-7 only to see Beth Mooney take the game away. They then had England on the ropes, only for the rains to force an abandonment. The subsequent fixture against New Zealand also suffered the same fate before the defeat to South Africa. This means their final round-robin match against Sri Lanka is a chance for consolation.

Having won five out of five in the qualifiers to book their spot, Pakistan had gone to the World Cup looking to improve their record of three wins from 30 in the tournament since their maiden appearance in the 1997 edition. While they were unable to add to the win column, they did inspire hope for the future. What they lacked was the finishing touch — the practice for which comes with more matches. Fatima’s team only played three ODIs this year apart from the qualifiers — a home series against South Africa ahead of the World Cup. Giving more opportunities to the women players, on both the domestic and international stage, should be the way forward for the Pakistan Cricket Board.

Published in Dawn, October 23rd, 2025

Blame solves little

AS lives continue to be lost in Pakistan’s renewed battle against terrorism and violent extremism, the role played by the national leadership has left much to be desired. In recent weeks, representatives of the state and the federation have blamed KP’s political leadership for much that ails the country with respect to the deteriorating national security situation. On the other hand, the civilian leadership of KP, as well as the leader of the party that runs it, have chosen to take their own hard-line stance against the federal government and the state, publicly questioning and rejecting the centre’s counterterrorism doctrine and blaming its ‘flawed policies’ for the resurgence of terrorism-related incidents in the country. All that this finger-pointing has achieved is to needlessly politicise a highly sensitive issue for Pakistan: how must one deal with enemies that have embedded themselves within its social fabric and are often indistinguishable from ordinary citizens? The stakes are enormous — unless the resurgence in terrorism is firmly addressed, it could set the country back by years. Sadly, it often seems that our leaders do not wish to address the problem meaningfully.

Both sides seem to be at fault in the matter. There are limits to what force alone can achieve, and it has been pointed out often enough that the fight against terrorism cannot be resolved simply by imposing a solution on the people most affected by it. This is something the federation must reflect on and work to address. Merely issuing statements of commendation for the sacrifices being made is not enough. The Constitution says that the nation must be run according to the will of the people, and the will of the people must therefore be respected. At the same time, the political leadership of KP must also choose its battles wisely. Where citizens’ lives are at risk, there can be no room for any second-guessing about what the path forward should be. The elements wreaking havoc in the name of their warped ideologies have demonstrated time and again that their interests do not align with those of ordinary Pakistani men and women. It should not appear in any way that they deserve any sympathy. It is high time for the federation to call a ‘ceasefire’ on its internal strife and for its political rivals to do the same. One cannot keep repeating mistakes and expecting different results.

Published in Dawn, October 22nd, 2025

New captain

THE rumour mill had begun to churn last week; eventually matters became clear as the Pakistan Cricket Board announced it would hold discussions on the captaincy of the One-day International team. On Monday night, the trigger-happy PCB under Mohsin Naqvi finally made it official: Shaheen Shah Afridi was to replace Mohammad Rizwan as ODI captain.

The decision came on the heels of the first day of the second Test against South Africa, in which both players are taking part. Shaheen’s first assignment will be next month’s three-match ODI series against South Africa in Faisalabad; his ascension coming in as abrupt a manner as his sacking as T20 captain in the early days of Mr Naqvi’s chairmanship last year.


Shaheen had been named T20 captain by Mr Naqvi’s predecessor, but was removed after just one series to reinstate Babar Azam ahead of the 2024 T20 World Cup. It was the start of a game of musical chairs. Babar resigned after Pakistan’s dismal World Cup campaign, with Rizwan handed the reins of both the ODI and T20 teams. He led Pakistan to historic series wins in Australia and South Africa, but Pakistan had another dismal campaign at this year’s Champions Trophy and the T20 team had a new leader in Salman Ali Agha.

Shaheen will now lead the ODI side. But, in its announcement, the PCB did not mention for how long it desires to continue with Shaheen. There was also, surprisingly, no mention of Rizwan, who seems to be falling out of favour, and it is unclear if he will find a spot in the ODI squad.

Pace spearhead Shaheen, meanwhile, has rediscovered his old form, bowling with verve. Burdening him with the captaincy may not be the right move. The South Africa series will tell whether the PCB has made the right choice. One hopes that this time the PCB, having burned several bright talents by handing them the captaincy, has exercised caution.

Published in Dawn, October 22nd, 2025

Cost of violence

FINANCE Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb’s acknowledgement that Pakistan’s financial stability hinges on curbing militancy is a rare moment of candidness in our economic policy discourse. For too long, policymakers have refrained from admitting how militant violence and political instability drive away foreign investment. At a media briefing in Washington, Mr Aurangzeb stated that sustained economic development and investor confidence depended on domestic peace and political cohesion. “From a financial angle, this action is necessary,” he said, underscoring a reality long known but rarely spoken of — Pakistan’s economic prospects are deeply intertwined with its ability to effectively curb militancy. During his weeklong visit to the US, the minister faced recurring questions from credit rating agencies, international bankers and institutional investors, who asked if Pakistan’s security environment had finally begun to align with its economic ambitions. The question was a valid one.

Security concerns have emerged as the biggest constraint to potential Chinese investment despite a friendship touted as ‘higher than the Himalayas and sweeter than honey’. The very fact that such worries weigh heavily on foreign investors shows how inseparable Pakistan’s image as an investment destination is with its domestic security landscape. No wonder, the interior minister often finds himself trying to reassure foreign investors of their protection amid terrorist violence. While terrorist attacks are reported from across the country, militant violence has particularly surged in KP and Balochistan. The numbers speak for themselves. In the third quarter — July to September — of this year, the numbers show how high violence has soared as compared to the previous quarter due to increasing militant attacks amid intensified counterterrorism operations. This year is on track to be deadlier than 2024, and is already the most violent one in a decade. The political polarisation referred to by Mr Aurangzeb, further complicates the environment needed for sustained investment and economic growth. Our long-term economic ambition and ability to attract foreign investors depends on restoring the authority of the state and tackling the root causes of militancy — not just through the use of kinetic force against extremists but also through engaging with disillusioned segments of the populace where possible, as well as establishing the rule of law. In short, domestic peace, governance and economic progress are interconnected and interdependent, and, therefore, must move together.

Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2025

Dengue returns

EVEN floods and ferocious monsoon spells could not compel the authorities to take timely precautions. Dengue has returned with a vengeance. A rusty healthcare system is clogged with patients suffering from the seasonal menace, leaving little space and staff for other emergencies. While the Sindh health department has so far set this year’s tally at 819, the health services director general’s data for Karachi and Hyderabad is 579 and 119 respectively. Four Karachi hospitals show 2,972 cases between Sept 1 to Oct 16. A Hyderabad institute confirmed 9,075 in the same period. The total exceeds 12,000 cases in six weeks; and includes fatalities in Karachi and Hyderabad. In Rawalpindi and Islamabad, the dengue toll since July is 1,093. In KP, the infection soared to 3,638 cases, with at least two deaths in Mardan.

Repeated warnings — climate change has shifted vector-borne virus patterns, producing temperature-resilient species and strains — came to naught. A sustained, wide-ranging programme comprising mass awareness, fogging, fumigation drives and water drainage is absent. Punjab, despite the recent deluge and rains, has managed to stay dengue-safe through another virus season. This proves that well-timed directives, and public and administrative watchfulness can prevent misery. In 2017, KP sought support from Punjab, which had battled a dengue outbreak in 2011 with a notable strategy involving collaboration between Pakistani, Indonesian and Sri Lankan doctors. Fresh regulations to dispel the annual health epidemic were enforced. Sindh and KP should put political egos aside and do the same. The people’s well-being and that of scores of flood victims at the mercy of the elements must take precedence. An upgraded version of the Punjab template, alongside the availability of doctors and medicines to avoid acute cases of low platelet counts is crucial. Additionally, indoor residual spraying and cost-free dengue tests can help keep the Aedes aegypti mosquito at bay.

Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2025

Absent transparency

THE sale of the loss-making First Women Bank to a large investment company based in the UAE for a modest $14.6m, albeit small in scale, is nonetheless a welcome development. The sale of the government’s entire stake of 82.64pc in the bank to the International Holding Company, under what is being touted as a ‘government-to-government’ deal with the UAE, to a major player controlling assets worth $240bn globally sends positive signals, even if the amount is limited. Yet the fact that it took the government 31 years to sell the bank, despite repeated attempts since its inclusion in the privatisation list in 1994, shows how far the privatisation agenda has drifted from its original promise. The transaction could serve as a catalyst for the long-promised flows of Gulf investments to Pakistan.

Still, the transaction has triggered concerns over the manner in which the sale has been executed. Instead of taking the preferred route of competitive bidding as mandated under the Privatisation Ordinance, the government’s preference for a negotiated deal under the Inter-Governmental Commercial Transactions Act has raised valid questions about the lack of transparency in the process. The law, enacted in 2022 to bypass the bidding process in direct G2G transactions, appears to have been manipulated to facilitate the sale of a public asset to a foreign private entity. The argument that the deal could not have materialised without the UAE’s active support, or that the law does not necessarily have to be invoked in direct transactions with foreign governments or their entities, has merit. Still, questions remain about transparency and whether a better price could have been secured through competitive bidding. The government would do well to avoid this opaque route to privatisation in future. The use of this law to bypass competitive bidding, particularly in big-ticket transactions, risks reinforcing public perceptions that the G2G framework is being used to favour certain buyers. Transparency will also ensure that the new owners will not have to face legal challenges as has been the case in several past privatisation deals. That only one prior transaction involving a concession agreement with a UAE firm for managing Karachi Port berths was concluded under this law before the sale of the bank suggests that foreign investors are seeking deeper structural reforms and greater confidence, and not the suppression of competition.

Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2025

Need for safeguards

ONE of the key manifestations of extremism in Pakistan is the misuse of blasphemy laws. While sacrilege can never be condoned, it is the misuse of these laws to settle personal scores and persecute vulnerable groups that has led to frequent bouts of violence in society.

In this regard, the government has stated its intent to reform the laws in order to prevent abuse. While speaking at an event at the Supreme Court recently, the federal law minister said that “procedural safeguards” were being introduced in blasphemy-related cases to prevent misuse. At the same event, the chief justice of Pakistan highlighted the need for interfaith harmony.

While specifics are not available, any progress in this regard should be welcomed, though it must be remembered that previous efforts at reform — even those led by the higher judiciary — have stalled due to the pushback from extremist lobbies.

Calls for reform of the blasphemy laws, and legal safeguards, are by no means a defence of sacrilege. For harmony in society, no abuse against the revered figures and scriptures of all faiths can be tolerated, and there can be no room for hate speech. Instead, what activists have been saying for decades is that the misuse of the laws has to be prevented. We have seen far too many incidents where personal disputes have led to accusations of blasphemy, while in other instances, sacrilege allegations have been used to dispossess minorities of their land.

Moreover, recently a gang of criminals was uncovered that would trap people online and blackmail them, threatening to go public with false blasphemy allegations against the victims unless they paid up.

Clearly, steps need to be taken, as innocent people have lost their lives simply on the basis of unproven claims and spurious ‘evidence’. Even the head of the Council of Islamic Ideology said last year that certain “religious elements” were misusing the laws and resorting to “mob justice”, which is “un-Islamic”.

If the state’s latest attempt to reform the said laws is to succeed, then there needs to be buy-in from mainstream clerics. Unless clergymen of all sects endorse the state’s move, and extremist voices are isolated, the initiative is unlikely to succeed. But beyond legal changes, to end the troubling culture of false blasphemy allegations, there needs to be grassroots change in society, so that sensitive religious issues are not used to target people.

Countering violent extremism has been highlighted both in NAP and NAP 2.0, yet beyond solemn promises, successive administrations have done little on the ground to translate these aims into policy. Holding conferences and issuing statements is not enough. Conversations must be held in neighbourhood mosques, madressahs, schools and bazaars to communicate the message, and adopt a ‘whole-of-society’ approach against extremism.

Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2025

Eradication in peril

PAKISTAN’S anti-polio campaign has once more been marred by bloodshed. Over the past week alone, three security personnel guarding vaccination teams were gunned down in Swat, Nowshera and Surab. Similar attacks earlier this year in Waziristan, Mastung and Noshki claimed more lives. Each incident reminds us that the fight against polio in Pakistan is as much about defeating extremism and misinformation as it is about delivering two drops of vaccine. This month’s nationwide immunisation drive aims to reach more than 45m children under five. The campaign, running from Oct 13 to 19, comes amid a resurgence of poliovirus, with new cases detected in KP and southern Balochistan and a growing number of positive sewage samples. Despite this, the state continues to rely on exhausted, underpaid health workers and overstretched police guards who operate in fear. The killings of those who carry out this national duty expose the government’s failure to provide even basic security, let alone the moral support and compensation their families deserve.

Pakistan’s own public statements suggest a target of eradicating poliovirus transmission by the end of 2025, describing the current effort as the “final push”. Yet the global eradication strategy has been extended towards 2029 as international partners acknowledge that the virus continues to circulate in hard-to-reach and conflict-affected areas. How does the state intend to meet its 2025 ambition when vaccinators are being murdered in broad daylight and communities are still misled by conspiracy and propaganda? For decades, Pakistan has pledged to end polio, and billions have been spent on surveillance, logistics and awareness campaigns. Still, the virus endures — not because of lack of knowledge or resources, but because of poor governance, political complacency, and an unwillingness to learn from past failures. Extremist networks that vilify vaccination operate unchecked. Intelligence coordination is weak. Investigations into such attacks rarely lead to accountability. The country’s credibility before global donors and health partners is fast eroding. If Pakistan cannot guarantee the safety of those protecting its children, it cannot credibly claim that polio is on the brink of eradication. Security is not a peripheral concern — it is the foundation of success. Until we confront militancy and misinformation with conviction, the goal of polio eradication will continue to elude us.

Published in Dawn, October 19th, 2025

Unfair vanity

OUR social prejudices equate beauty with fairness, although skin-lightening products are the darkest side of the beauty world. The CCP’s nationwide probe into businesses that manufacture, sell and market mercury-heavy skin-whitening creams is welcome. Its Fair Trade and Market Intelligence wing has discovered hazardous levels of mercury in whitening products, widely available online and in stores. Health and wellness matter little for beauty peddlers. Mercury, due to its ability to block melanin production, has been a permanent, albeit hidden, ingredient. Extremely toxic, it is absorbed through the skin, causing rashes, kidney damage, neurological disorders and reproductive issues. It can be transferred to children through superficial contact. Doctors also say that the steroids and chemicals in pigment-altering products enter the bloodstream and weaken the immune system.

Fairness fare is no stranger to censure, yet its popularity does not seem to wane. The cosmetics industry has long relied on persuading people that ‘perfection’ is a lotion away — a notion that instils racism and harms well-being and social accord. Their ads, although not as brazenly biased as they once were, still feature fair skin as necessary for personal and professional success, promising rare, rapid exquisiteness. Awareness campaigns, which focus on the importance of healthy lifestyles, the misleading nature of ads, genuine skin prescriptions and rules that ensure safe enhancement formulas, can counter the stigma associated with dark skin, which has strengthened the hold of harmful products. Social pressures cannot be overlooked. Families should be aware of the repercussions that are expensive to treat, and the futility of misguided ‘beauty’. Many countries have banned these goods. Pakistan should do the same, instituting hefty penalties for deceptive marketing. The emotional trauma of users who end up with hardened skin, resistant to treatment, and permanent pigmentation, means that every shade should be celebrated.

Published in Dawn, October 19th, 2025