DAWN Editorials - 1st January 2025

[faheemustad]

Avoiding reform

PAKISTAN’S economic growth significantly slowed down to a modest 0.92pc during the first quarter of the present fiscal year to September from 2.3pc the previous year, according to new National Accounts Committee data. This fall in the growth rate is not surprising given the massive cuts in public development stimulus due to the stabilisation policies being carried out under the IMF programme, the continued impact of a tough macroeconomic environment on industry and private investment, and the decline in major crops, owing to climate change and higher costs. However, the economy is still expected to expand by up to 3pc to 3.5pc during this fiscal year as the cost of borrowing is being slashed on plunging inflation and the external account stabilising, creating room for higher imports.

Any attempt at this moment to push the growth rate beyond this will require significant public development investment and unfettered imports to boost domestic consumption, which will lead us back to another balance-of-payments crisis — perhaps even default — accompanied by high inflation. Our ruling elites have tried this formula in pursuit of rapid growth for political gains too many times, always driving the economy back to the IMF’s door for bailouts to tackle one financial crisis after another. If anything, the increasing frequency of boom-and-bust cycles in recent decades have underlined that the country’s growth woes are rooted in our structural imbalances: low industrial and agricultural productivity, extremely low exports, meagre tax revenue collection, etc. Without fixing these imbalances, any attempt to boost the economic growth rate will produce the same results. With the world wary of our habit of living beyond our resources, the shortcut of pushing consumption-based growth with borrowed money is already closed. If the economy is to survive and grow, the policymakers will have to take the longer and tougher route of reforms they are still trying hard to avoid.

Published in Dawn, January 1st, 2025


On the front lines

THE human cost of terrorism in 2024 was staggering. The ISPR reports 383 officers and soldiers embraced martyrdom while neutralising 925 terrorists through nearly 60,000 intelligence-based operations.

When combined with losses among civil law enforcement, the total toll on security personnel reaches 685 lives lost across 444 terror attacks, according to CRSS, making it the deadliest year in a decade for those defending our front lines. And these are besides the civilian casualties. The concentration of these casualties in KP and Balochistan, accounting for 94pc of all fatalities, points to the particular vulnerability of our western borderlands. The sharp upward trend in violence since 2021, coinciding with the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, suggests that militant groups have not only regrouped but have also enhanced their operational capabilities.

This resurgence demands an urgent reassessment of our counterterrorism strategy. Despite the initiation of Operation Azm-i-Istehkam earlier last year, aimed at reinforcing CT efforts, the persistent and escalating attacks indicate that existing measures are insufficient. The state’s strategy appears reactive rather than proactive, often limited to immediate kinetic responses post-attacks, allowing militants to regroup and strike anew.

A paradigm shift is imperative. The formation of specialised CT units within the military and police, trained to combat asymmetrical warfare, is essential to dismantle the evolving strategies of terrorist groups. In addition, our intelligence apparatus must be strengthened to prevent attacks rather than merely responding to them. The repatriation of ‘illegal Afghan nationals’ may mark a positive step in border management, but more steps are needed to deny militants trans-border hideouts. It is vital to engage with our neighbours to address the cross-border sanctuaries of militant groups. While the onus of securing our territory lies with us, regional cooperation can play a pivotal role in dismantling terrorist networks operating across borders.

Furthermore, addressing the socioeconomic disenfranchisement in regions like KP and Balochistan is crucial. Economic development, education, and infrastructure improvements can serve as bulwarks against the spread of extremist ideologies. Engaging local communities in dialogue and development initiatives will foster trust and cooperation, undermining the influence of terrorist groups. The sacrifices of our security personnel necessitate decisive and sustained action. Let 2025 be marked with the resolve to end the spectre of terrorism. There has been too much bloodletting.

Published in Dawn, January 1st, 2025


Looking ahead

THOUGH the nation failed to achieve much-needed stability in the year just concluded, largely due to a controversial election and the associated political dissonance, the dawn of 2025 brings with it the hope that new opportunities can be seized to adopt a more constructive path.

There was much to bemoan in 2024: political discord; institutional atrophy; rising terrorism; lack of dynamic economic growth; a crackdown on the internet; multiple climate challenges, as well as the resurgence of polio. Yet it can be argued that all these issues are interlinked, and the key to addressing them is political stability and good governance undergirded by an unhindered democratic process. Without these key elements, the nation will continue to lurch from crisis to crisis, year after year.

Many had hoped that the 2024 general elections would end the three-way political deadlock between the PML-N and its allies, the PTI and the establishment. Yet this was not to be, as the Feb 8 polls — widely seen as unfair and non-transparent — have only exacerbated Pakistan’s political crisis.

But there is some hope that the impasse can be resolved democratically, as the PTI and government parties have started to talk. Yet unless these parleys arrive at a conclusion that prioritises the welfare of the people, and strengthens the constitutional order, instead of further weakening it, we may be back to square one.

The need to tackle economic problems is just as critical as resolving the political stalemate, as both are complementary. Without a political arrangement that emphasises stability and democratic continuity, long-term economic growth will remain a mirage, and Pakistan will not be able to break out of its debilitating debt trap. While back-breaking inflation levels may have come down, the common Pakistani is still struggling to make ends meet. Growth, meanwhile, is slow. A new economic order is needed that taxes the untaxed, protects the weak, focuses on growth and job creation, and stresses financial self-sufficiency over handouts.

Among the other major challenges facing Pakistan is terrorism, as deadly militant attacks spiked considerably in 2024. Defeating the ogre of terrorism requires a united effort with buy-in from all political and security stakeholders. Moreover, the choking smog of the past few years, as well as searing heatwaves and destructive floods, require the ruling class to address climate change with solid policies, not just promises.

Equally, there is a need to tackle the explosion in polio cases with the alacrity it deserves. But all these matters — security, health, climate adaptation and others — can only be dealt with when the political class stops bickering, and focuses on tackling the actual issues of the people. Meanwhile, in order to allow civilian rule to succeed, it is essential that other institutions stay within their constitutional domains.

Published in Dawn, January 1st, 2025