DAWN Editorials - 8th April 2025

[zarnishhayat]

Meltdown

PAKISTAN’S stock market has a much better idea than our policymakers about what has actually hit the global economy in the shape of US ‘reciprocal’ tariffs.

The nation’s equity market took a severe drubbing on Monday, plummeting 7.31pc at one point despite a pause in trading triggered by activation of circuit breakers to prevent panic selling and extreme volatility, following a steep drop in stock valuations during the morning session.


Although the PSX managed to claw back some of the losses later in the day, its bearish response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs shows that fears of recession worldwide weighed on investors’ minds more than the comfort offered by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb’s optimism that punitive tariffs could be turned into a win-win situation for both countries. “You should never let a good crisis go to waste. We are looking at it both as a challenge as well as an opportunity,” the minister said on Saturday.

But, it is one thing to be optimistic and another to be discerning. The minister, and a lot of businesspeople, are hopeful of offering the White House something in the shape of reduced or zero taxes on imports from the US besides boosting purchases from American exporters to get tariff concessions from the Trump administration. They also believe that the country’s exporters would gain rather than lose by the US action since its competitors like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, etc have been slapped with steeper import taxes.

It is not clear how our policymakers and businesspersons plan to gain a bigger market share in the US as we do not produce the high-quality garments and textiles as well as other products our rivals sell to the US. Nor is it clear how our decision makers plan to meet President Trump’s demand from all foreign countries to shrink their trade surpluses with the US. Global market turmoil notwithstanding, America’s leader has made it clear that he would not make a deal with other countries unless trade deficits were solved.


It is difficult to say how the situation will unfold in the near future. But it is more or less clear that a full-blown trade war is upon us as the era of the rules-based, multilateral trading order is nearly over. With that we are entering into an arbitrary, protectionist phase where might will be right, which poses a major risk to weaker economies like ours.

The stability and clarity international trade relations had under the WTO framework would no longer be available. Even if we are able to get concessions from the US, it will not protect us from the potential negative impacts of the changes spawned by the rejection of rules-based trading by the world’s biggest economy. Optimism is welcome but we should also be clear-eyed and prepared to brace ourselves for the possible shocks to come.

Published in Dawn, April 8th, 2025


Settling differences

SOMETHING is stirring within the PTI. Some of its older hands are back in the limelight, ostensibly to make another attempt at securing a rapprochement with the establishment. Imran Khan is prepared to come to the negotiating table if the establishment is prepared to talk, PTI veteran Azam Khan Swati recently communicated through the media. It is unclear what has changed. Why now, and what different result is being expected? After all, ever since his ouster, Mr Khan has been quite open about his desire to negotiate only with the security establishment. However, though he has been quite clear that he will talk to the generals and no one else, the same sentiment doesn’t seem to have been reciprocated by the other side. Several attempts have been made to secure some kind of agreement between the two, but talks have ultimately broken down due to the rigid positions taken by them. What makes the present situation more interesting is how it has triggered unease both within and without the party. The party’s cadres are clearly not on the same page, but the PTI’s rivals also seem unnaturally enthusiastic about celebrating the party’s weaknesses.

Undoubtedly, something is afoot that the masses are not privy to. There have been rumours about an ‘international’ attempt being made to contain the fallout of the PTI-establishment rift before things turn more toxic. It seems worth pointing out here that recent developments in the US have been suggesting a gathering geopolitical storm along with an international economic crisis. There’s also the matter of a Pakistan-specific legislation that is slowly snaking its way through the American legislative system. An adverse outcome in case it’s put to the vote could prove quite embarrassing. Pakistan cannot face any more upheaval with a house divided. Much has been expended to steady the ship since the 2022 political crisis, and it would be folly to squander it all because of a few resolvable differences. If talks can lead to a settlement of Pakistan’s political crisis, they should be conducted with all seriousness. However, any ‘solution’ that is arrived at must not exclude or sideline any of the legitimate stakeholders in Pakistan’s political process. This is crucial, because unless there is a broad agreement on the path forward, the country will remain trapped in a cycle of recurring instability.

Published in Dawn, April 8th, 2025


Glacial ingenuity

NECESSITY is indeed the mother of invention, as witnessed in Gilgit-Baltistan. In these areas, where climate change has dramatically reduced snowfall and disrupted traditional water cycles, farmers are not waiting for salvation from the state. Instead, they are building alternatives in the form of shimmering towers of ice. Inspired by the work of environmentalist Sonam Wangchuk, local villagers pipe water from streams, spray it into the frigid air, and let gravity and winter do the rest. These conical towers gradually melt during spring and summer, providing a lifeline to orchards and crops long before the natural glaciers begin to thaw. The ‘ice stupas’ have already transformed lives; where farmers could plant only once a year, they now sow multiple crops. Entire villages that once waited until June for water are irrigating fields as early as March. More than 20 villages, and over 16,000 people, have benefited — not through billion-rupee megaprojects, but through community willpower and practical knowledge-sharing.

In a country where droughts, floods, and mismanagement are often in the news, it is heartening to witness citizen-led innovation and optimism. The lesson is clear: water conservation is not solely the domain of engineers and ministries. Communities across Pakistan can embrace localised solutions: from rainwater harvesting and drip irrigation to fixing leaks and reducing wastage. Grey-water recycling, rooftop water storage, terraced farming, and school-based awareness programmes can also help promote long-term sustainability. In coastal areas, small-scale desalination units may offer relief. In urban centres, policies encouraging water-efficient appliances and reuse of treated wastewater in parks and construction will have a lasting impact. With temperatures rising and resources thinning, the future of water in Pakistan hangs in the balance. However, the villagers of Kharmang and Skardu remind us that resilience is possible, and that the coldest ideas can bring the warmest hope.

Published in Dawn, April 8th, 2025