Dawn Editorials 15th September 2025

Fiscal failure

PAKISTAN’S debt dynamics continue to paint a difficult fiscal picture. The latest State Bank debt bulletin shows that the government had added Rs9.3tr in new debt during the last fiscal year, with the total public debt stock surging to a record Rs80.5tr at the end of June. It means that the government had added a staggering Rs25.4bn every single day.

This relentless rise not only breaches the limits set by the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, but also undermines the budget as interest payments consume most of the latter.

The SBP data underlines that public debt has increased both in absolute terms and relative to the size of the economy, a combination that would require more borrowings for making debt payments.

The resurgent debt-to-GDP ratio increasing to 70.2pc from 67.8pc in one year should be of concern to policymakers due to multiple reasons. One, the rise in debt underscores the reversal of a trend that saw the ratio dropping significantly to 67.8pc in FY24 from 75.2pc the previous year, in spite of stringent fiscal consolidation under the IMF funding programme. Two, it points to a widening gap between tax and other resources and growing expenditures as reflected in the fiscal deficit despite austerity measures. Three, it indicates the state’s eroding capacity to finance development and future growth.

Given this backdrop of rising debt and shrinking fiscal space, many now doubt the government’s ability to assist the millions affected by the recent floods. With little international support, we face the grim prospect of displaced citizens bearing their losses alone — another reminder that its fiscal profligacy has brought the state to a stage where it is unable to protect Pakistanis when disaster strikes. Indeed, the present floods may not rival the devastation caused by the 2002 deluge. Yet the economic toll of the current disaster is still severe and widespread enough to shave off growth, fan inflation and further strain public finances.

Cotton, rice, sugarcane, vegetables and livestock fodder have been wiped out in parts of Punjab and other areas in the country hit by floods. Tens of thousands of households are displaced, while damaged roads, bridges, irrigation channels and housing will require billions for rehabilitation — resources Pakistan does not have.

The country finds itself constrained by a tight budget and heavy debt obligations, leaving it yet again dependent on external aid. Unfortunately, the muted global response to this year’s devastation suggests that even if help arrives, it will be too little to meet the need.

For the government, the options are bleak: diverting scarce domestic resources — which would require the IMF’s consent — or borrowing more to add to an already high debt mountain. In both scenarios, the flood victims risk becoming collateral damage of successive governments’ fiscal mismanagement.

Published in Dawn, September 15th, 2025

Easing repatriation

THE spectacle of Afghan families trudging back across the border from Pakistan has become sadly familiar. Since April, more than half a million have returned, many under duress. In the first week of September alone, nearly 100,000 crossed — just as earthquakes flattened parts of the country they were entering. UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, warns of a “crisis within a crisis”: forced returns clashing with a natural disaster in a state already in danger of collapse. Pakistan has carried much of the burden of Afghan displacement for decades, often without adequate foreign assistance. It cannot be expected to shoulder this responsibility indefinitely. Yet the plight of vulnerable groups, such as women, children, the elderly and those with no ties to the country they are being sent back to, must be addressed with care.

The immediate obstacle lies not only in Pakistan’s repatriation plan, but in Kabul’s own policies. The Taliban have tied the hands of the very agencies meant to ease the transition. By barring Afghan women from working with the UN, they have forced the suspension of cash and support centres that served thousands daily. Humanitarian relief depends on access to women — for interviews, biometrics and basic services. No amount of foreign funding will help if aid workers are blocked from doing their jobs. Kabul’s rulers, obsessed with enforcing social curbs, are worsening the suffering of their own people. Pakistan, for its part, must ensure that all returns are voluntary, safe and dignified. Rigid enforcement of the ‘Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan’ will only aggravate suffering, risk undermining the country’s reputation for hospitality and invite diplomatic censure. Practical mechanisms to identify those at heightened risk, as suggested by UNHCR, should be developed without delay. This is where better coordination between Pakistan, the UN system and Afghanistan’s de facto rulers becomes critical. A little effort from both sides — Islamabad offering some flexibility in timelines, and Kabul lifting restrictions on aid workers — could go a long way in easing this fraught process. Such cooperation might even open space for dialogue on longer-term integration, resettlement and development aid — issues that have for too long been treated as afterthoughts. Instead, Pakistan, the Taliban and the UN are pulling in different directions. For ordinary Afghans caught between earthquake rubble and official pronouncements, the result is misery layered upon misery.

Published in Dawn, September 15th, 2025

Stifled press

THAT global press freedom is at its lowest in half a century speaks poorly for the health of the pen. The Stockholm-based International IDEA’S annual survey, The Global State of Democracy Report 2025, covers 174 countries, and shows a dramatic decline in democracy in 94 states over the last five years. Media freedom saw the widest corrosion since 1975 in 15 African and 15 European countries, with six each in Asia, the US and Pacific. While Afghanistan, Myanmar and Burkina Faso posted the worst descent, South Korea’s was the fourth largest fall due to excessive defamation cases by its rulers against journalists and “raids on journalist’s residences”. Freedom of expression plummeted in 22pc of countries, economic equality in 21pc and access to justice in 20pc. The report’s ‘rule of law’ section shows 71 countries in the low performance group. Clearly, repression, autocratic attitudes and the desire to preserve this status quo reflect a tougher battle for world press and democracy.

For Pakistan, where economic uncertainty and suppression continue to mount, the report holds a sobering message: proponents of human rights and free speech deserve safety for truth to survive. In a little over two decades, some 90 Pakistani media personnel have been eliminated, making the country one of the most dangerous for journalism. Pakistan hovers at the bottom of the World Press Freedom Index. The report indicates that without fair elections, rule of law, accountability and government reforms, justice, progress and harmony will elude democracies. An unfettered press restores trust in credible media outlets, which quashes propaganda, fake news and biased narratives. Over 54pc countries registered a dip in one of the five democracy gauges between 2019 and 2024 — a sign that democracies wither when speaking truth to power becomes a crime. The public, not power, has to be protected for Pakistan to be viewed as a defender of free speech.

Published in Dawn, September 15th, 2025