Dawn Editorials 16th October 2025

Navigating fragility

PAKISTAN remains caught between cautious economic optimism and persistent challenges. This is the central message of the IMF’s latest assessment of the country’s outlook for the current fiscal year and its medium-term growth trajectory.

The Fund’s new World Economic Outlook report projects Pakistan’s GDP to grow by a modest 3.6pc, with average headline inflation rising slightly to 6pc from 4.5pc last year, and the current account balance shifting from a 0.5pc surplus to a manageable 0.4pc deficit — twice the finance ministry’s estimate of 0.2pc of GDP.

These projections, issued days after the IMF completed its two-week review of the economy this month, appear fairly optimistic, given that they do not account for the economic impact of the recent devastating floods. A revision of the Fund’s outlook, therefore, cannot be ruled out once flood loss estimates are finalised. The government has already scaled down its own growth target for the year from 4.2pc to 3.5pc, while the World Bank expects growth to slow to around 2.6pc in view of the flood damage.

Should we be worried about ‘worsening’ economic fundamentals? Fortunately, even the new projections do not suggest a reversal of our hard-won economic stability, at least for now. What they highlight, however, is that recovery remains fragile, constrained by the economy’s limited capacity to absorb internal and external shocks, and that Pakistan is unlikely to break out of its low-growth trap in the near to medium term without risking more economic distress.

Meanwhile, the 33pc year-on-year surge in trade deficit to $9.4bn during the first quarter of the current fiscal, from $7bn a year ago, is a troubling sign for economic stability, especially when the flood impact is yet to show up in the balance of trade. To some analysts, this sharp widening of the trade gap, driven by a spike in imports and a decline in exports, signals potential economic overheating, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current growth pattern.

If the trend holds, we could end up with an annual trade deficit exceeding $36bn — nearly $10bn higher than last year’s — putting renewed pressures on the recently accumulated foreign exchange reserves. Previously, high trade deficits have repeatedly undermined economic stability, stifled growth, fuelled inflation and constrained investment by triggering balance-of-payments crises every few years. That is what Pakistan has experienced in recent years.

The economy will remain vulnerable to internal and external shocks, including extreme weather events, until it creates conditions conducive to attracting investment in productive sectors to expand and diversify exports. The stakes could not have been higher for a country desperately seeking sustainable, inclusive economic growth in the face of low productivity, stagnant private investment, a high trade deficit and elevated debt. The floods may not have caused these challenges, but they will exacerbate them.

Published in Dawn, October 16th, 2025

Encounters surge

THE menace of extrajudicial killings of suspects by law enforcers is an age-old problem in Pakistan. But as rights monitors have highlighted, the creation of a specialised unit in Punjab earlier this year has led to a surge in so-called encounters. As per the HRCP, there have been over 500 alleged encounters in Punjab since the start of the year, resulting in over 670 fatalities. These high numbers coincide with the formation of the Crime Control Department of Punjab Police, a unit that was set up to crack down on violent crime in the province. But while such killings have been occurring for decades, the HRCP says there is a “growing normalisation” of such incidents. In essence, the Punjab administration seems to believe that encounters are a legitimate method of crime control, indirectly admitting that the criminal justice system has failed. A CCD spokesman has denied that the unit flouts the law, observing that they have “zero tolerance [for] extrajudicial acts”. But encounters are not limited to Punjab; the HRCP has noted that nearly 5,000 “staged police encounters” were reported in both Sindh and Punjab in 2024.

The most powerful argument against these dubious methods is the fact that innocent people are often killed in staged encounters. The cases of Naqeebullah Mehsud and Shahnawaz Kambhar spring to mind, but many other innocent lives have similarly been lost in phoney encounters. No one can be denied due process as per the Constitution. Encounters are, in fact, a ‘quick fix’ that officials assume will bring down crime, bypassing byzantine legal processes and atrophied investigation procedures. But the truth is that along with being patently illegal, staged killings do not bring down crime figures. It is also highly problematic that in the prevailing police culture, officers that are considered ‘encounter specialists’ are lionised, and treated as heroes for their ‘kills’. What is required is accountability of the police, and a modern, scientific investigation system. Any time there are complaints of staged killings, these must be investigated by independent bodies consisting of members of the judiciary, lawmakers, prominent citizens, etc. Furthermore, an overhaul of the criminal justice system is long overdue. As we rely on colonial methods of investigation, our conviction rates are abysmally low, which leads to reliance on illegal actions such as encounters.

Published in Dawn, October 16th, 2025

Invisible childhood

THE world rightly sees child domestic workers as modern slaves, while domestic labour is categorised as informal work, or invisible labour. In July 2022, a qualitative study by the International Labour Organisation revealed that one in every four Pakistani households employs a minor, showing a predominance of girls from 10 to 14 years in our domestic workforce. Over 264,000 children in the country were serving as domestic employees. The picture now is darker still: the Sindh Child Labour Survey 2022-2024 found that over 1.6m minors, between five and 17 years, were trapped in this scourge in the province. This is largely because ambiguous legislations have stood in the way of crafting the definition of a ‘child’. In the absence of clear-cut rules that protect their liberties, and ensure minors’ rights, our children’s exposure to abuse remains at a shameful high.

Child labour is the consequence of poverty. In fact, its presence in Pakistan correlates with severe socioeconomic compulsions, such as poverty, poor access to education and a frail justice system. But this does not mean that the lack of will to pass laws to secure young labourers and punish violators can persist. Some estimates in 2022 stated that Pakistan had the third-highest number of child workers in the world. Experts believe that over the past two decades, the menace has witnessed a four-fold rise. It is time the government realised that the need for an authentic databank is crucial. For this, relevant provincial and federal sectors should be mobilised, along with an enhanced police force that is trained to identify a child’s exploitation. Only a cultural shift, driven by collective sensitivity towards child privileges, along with a robust health and education infrastructure, can salvage Pakistan’s human rights profile. Signing international treaties — such as the ILO conventions — without carrying out the responsibilities outlined therein means a fragile future generation.

Published in Dawn, October 16th, 2025