Dawn Editorials 17th September 2025

Rain-borne risks

HEAVY rains have left Pakistan awash not just with floodwater but also disease. Across Punjab and Sindh, hospitals are overrun with patients suffering from mosquito-borne illnesses and waterborne infections. Entire neighbourhoods have turned into stagnant ponds, ideal breeding grounds for Aedes aegypti. The result is a surge in dengue cases, with malaria close behind. Dirty water is also taking its toll. Reports from relief camps describe children doubled over with diarrhoea, families struggling with gastric pain and vomiting, and doctors battling suspected cholera clusters. In makeshift shelters, skin rashes, eye infections and coughs are spreading fast. These maladies are hardly new. They return each monsoon, exposing the same underlying weakness: Pakistan’s creaking sanitation and drainage systems, and its chronic underinvestment in public health. The Met Office has issued a high-risk dengue alert from Sept 20 through early December, citing waterlogging, humidity above 60pc, and continuing rainfall as near-perfect conditions for the mosquito’s spread. Forecasts also point to further rainfall, raising fears of fresh flooding and prolonging the public health crisis.

Yet the response remains reactive. Provincial authorities issue warnings; local councils scramble to fog neighbourhoods against mosquitoes; hospitals plead for more medicines. International agencies deliver purification tablets and rehydration salts. But little is done to prepare before the rains fall. The result is an annual cycle of avoidable suffering, disproportionately borne by the poor who lack access to clean water or private healthcare. Breaking this cycle requires more than temporary relief. The government must invest in drainage and sewerage systems in its cities, where unplanned sprawl has outpaced infrastructure. Disease-surveillance networks must be strengthened so outbreaks can be tracked and contained swiftly. Relief camps need reliable supplies of safe drinking water and sanitation facilities. And vector control should be year-round, not merely after floodwaters rise. Unless preparedness replaces firefighting, each monsoon will continue to unleash misery.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2025

Unchanged rate

THE State Bank’s decision to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 11pc, for the third time in a row, signals its concerns over the evolving risks to the inflation and growth outlook as the country continues to reel under the impact of the floods. This is despite the SBP’s confidence in the ability of the economy to weather the flood-related destruction in Punjab — our largest agricultural producer — and beyond. The decision is shaped mainly by a need to balance the near-term potential rise in food inflation — as indicated by the surging weekly price indicators — and import demand amid what the bank calls a slight deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook, while also focusing on the medium-term need to stabilise expectations and preserve hard-won stability. With floods threatening Kharif crop yields, food prices and the current account balance, the immediate outlook is clouded. Therefore, the bank believes that inflation may breach the 5-7pc target for much of the present year, while growth may ease to the lower band of its previous forecast of 3.25-4.25pc range.

Yet the bank feels that these shocks, while significant, will not overwhelm the national economy, which stands on a “stronger footing to withstand the negative fallout of the ongoing floods as compared to previous major flood events”. Its confidence stems from a number of positive developments. Headline consumer inflation has significantly moderated and core inflation is trending down — albeit slowly. Official international reserves have surged to $14.3bn, despite debt repayments and the current account deficit, and are expected to reach $15.5bn by the end of 2025. Besides, remittances remain robust. On the fiscal side, the growth in FBR tax collection, which fell slightly short of the target during July-August, is expected to lead to a significant primary surplus in Q1-FY26 with the help of SBP profits. Moreover, global trade uncertainty has reduced following the announcement of revised US import tariffs, while commodity price outlook remains benign. Nonetheless, the bigger challenge lies ahead if fiscal pressures mount due to reconstruction spending and potential slowdown in revenues. In this situation, the SBP is right to emphasise the continuation of reforms — preferably related to tax and state-owned enterprises — and a prudent monetary and fiscal policy mix to create space for additional development spending and strengthen external and fiscal buffers to cushion the impact of future economic shocks.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2025

Not enough

WHILE the tone of the participants of the Arab-Islamic Summit in Doha on Monday was certainly hard towards Israel, unless there are tangible actions to back up the meeting’s proposals, the Arab and Muslim world’s reaction will remain limited to rhetoric.

The conclave was convened after Israel’s reckless attack last week on the Qatari capital, in which it targeted Hamas members as well as a local security man. While Israel has been hitting Muslim states relentlessly since Oct 7, 2023 — mainly Iran and its regional allies — this time the target was different: a pro-US monarchy that also maintains ties with Hamas. Perhaps the newest choice of target explains why the Islamic world’s monarchs and rulers rushed to Doha to deliberate. Yet few actionable goals emerged from the summit.

For instance, states were urged to review their economic and diplomatic relations with the Zionist state. One would have thought a definite line of action would have emerged in this regard, not wishy-washy suggestions.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif proposed the formation of a “task force” to deter Israeli aggression, while Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told Al Jazeera that Pakistan could contribute to efforts if a combined Muslim security force was considered. And yet, as the Muslim world deliberates, Israel continues the bloodbath in Gaza.

On Tuesday, Tel Aviv launched the ground invasion of Gaza City. Meanwhile, the UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory has said Israel is indeed committing genocide in Gaza. This is the latest in a series of expert opinions, which have reaffirmed the fact that the Zionist state is carrying out a modern holocaust in the Strip.

The Palestinian people have suffered long enough, while there is a very real threat of Israel attacking even more Muslim states as part of its strategy to dominate the region through the sword.

Therefore, much more was expected from the Arab League/OIC moot. For one, the complete diplomatic and economic boycott of Israel — and those states that help fund and support its genocide — until it ceases the violence should have been a unified decision, not an option. Words devoid of actions reflect division and weakness within the Muslim world.

Additionally, the GCC’s expectation that the US will use its “influence on Israel in order for it to stop this behaviour” is divorced from reality. The Trump administration is openly pro-Zionist, featuring members who consider it a religious and ideological duty to defend Israel and all its crimes. Therefore, if the Arab/Muslim bloc is serious about ending the holocaust in Gaza, and preventing more members of its fraternity from becoming Israeli targets, they will need to depend on themselves, and come up with a solid plan to end Israeli impunity.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2025