Dawn Editorials 20th September 2025

Missing the mark

THIS time around, the man recovering from surgery but still carrying the weight of a nation’s expectations, buckled. At the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo, Arshad Nadeem could not deliver glory; in fact, the 28-year-old Olympic javelin champion fell quite short. For the high standards Arshad set for himself — much of it thanks to his own unrelenting efforts — it was woefully short. He could only manage a best throw of 82.75m for 10th place in Thursday’s final at the Japan National Stadium — his worst finish at a global event since he ended 16th overall in the qualifying rounds of the world championships in 2019. Since that edition, Arshad has always been among the top five. He was fifth at the Olympics in Tokyo four years ago as well as the 2022 world championships in the US. He then claimed gold at the 2022 Commonwealth Games, before winning second place at the world championships in Budapest a year later. His biggest moment of glory came last year when Arshad smashed the Olympic record to win a historic gold in Paris. Expectations, therefore, were high as he headed to the world championships, even though he had recently been operated on to fix a calf injury. Injuries have plagued the build-up to almost every international competition in Arshad’s career. This time, they caught up with him.

A blame game ensued, with accusations that Arshad’s coach Salman Butt made him insular. But the question is: is it fair to ask Arshad to deliver every time he steps on the global stage, given the dearth of facilities and opportunities for him? Since winning Olympic gold, he has participated in only the Asian Championships, which he won. While others competed throughout the season in the Diamond League, Arshad has been training in decrepit facilities. There are three years till the next Olympics and if Pakistan wants a fit Arshad there, much will have to change.

Published in Dawn, September 20th, 2025

External strains

AFTER recording a surplus of $2.1bn in FY25 for the first time in 14 years, the nation’s current account has slipped back into a deficit of $624m during the first two months of the current fiscal year, underscoring renewed pressures on the external sector. Even though the gap narrowed to $245m in August — a 35pc improvement on July’s $379m on account of softer outflows and resilient remittances — the reprieve could prove to be short-lived amid the devastation caused by the floods across Punjab and beyond. A nearly 200pc increase in the month-over-month gap in August and an over 45pc increase in the year-over-year deficit in the July-August period are hardly reassuring, and underscore the external sector’s structural fragility. The reversal in the trajectory of the current account deficit highlights the vulnerability of our balance-of-payments at a time when flood-related crop and infrastructure losses and the potential increase in food imports threaten to expand the gap further. The State Bank notes in its latest monetary policy statement that the external sector outlook remains susceptible to evolving domestic and global conditions, and that flood-related crop damage could widen the trade deficit.

Some analysts have rightly stressed that continued IMF engagement, timely multilateral and bilateral inflows and resilient remittances can cushion the pressure going forward. The bank, too, hopes that the deficit will remain manageable in the range of 0-1pc of GDP this year, despite flood-related import pressures, with reserves expected to inch up from $14.5bn to $15.5bn by December. Besides, there is optimism that the defence pact with Saudi Arabia will go beyond security ties to create new avenues for bilateral trade and investment, injecting fresh liquidity into the economy. Yet such expectations must be tempered with practical thinking. The reality is that we are overly dependent on official foreign inflows and remittances to finance our essential imports, growth, debt payments and reserves build-up amid drying foreign private investment. Our industrial and agricultural output remains low and exports are stagnant, fuelling the trade deficit and enhancing external sector vulnerability to small shocks. Without credible and consistent governance and policy reforms to improve productivity and grow our exports, even a modest current account deficit could snowball into a bigger crisis. Betting on geopolitical advantages to take care of our structural problems has never paid off.

Published in Dawn, September 20th, 2025

Regional security

THE Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, is making an impact far beyond Islamabad and Riyadh.

While there is talk of extending the bilateral pact to other states, thus creating a larger regional security framework, there has also been unnecessary speculation about the use of Pakistan’s nuclear assets. Indeed, the expansion of defence cooperation is a project worth pursuing as currently both the Middle East and South Asia are experiencing geopolitical volatility. But where questions about nuclear arms are concerned, Pakistan should reiterate that its atomic weapons are a deterrent, meant solely for self-defence.

Pakistan has joined military alliances earlier, including the Cold War-era Seato and Cento pacts, which put it squarely in the Western camp. In these US-led alliances, Pakistan was little more than a bit player. However, the defence pact with Riyadh is different, as Pakistan today has a combat-hardened military and much-improved defence capabilities. The country’s profile was strengthened following the military clash with India earlier this year, sending the message that Pakistan could defend itself against a much larger foe. All these factors, as well as the irresponsible Israeli attack on Qatar, likely convinced the Saudis that it was the right time to seal the deal.

Now, there are indications that the military partnership could expand. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told an interviewer that “the doors are not closed” on other states. As we have argued, the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition could be repurposed for a larger defence role, bringing together Muslim states under one banner. Such an alliance, along the lines of Nato, would strengthen the security of all member states, and deter enemies from violating the sovereignty of Muslim and Arab countries. But the doors of membership should remain open to all Muslim states.

Meanwhile, all relevant circles should exercise caution in their words and actions. There is much speculation in the Western media that the Pakistan-Saudi deal would make this country’s nukes available to Riyadh — perhaps because some Saudi officials have been quoted as saying that the pact ‘encompasses all military means’. When asked about the nuclear issue, Khawaja Asif said that “our capabilities, will absolutely be available under this pact”, though he added that Pakistan remains a responsible nuclear power.

Any concerns on this front must be allayed immediately, and government officials in particular should unambiguously state that, as per Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine, the atomic weapons are meant as a deterrent.

Meanwhile, Pakistan and the other Muslim states should pool their conventional defensive resources. Numerous Muslim states in the Middle East have been attacked by Israel, while Pakistan has increasingly faced Indian aggression. A defence pact could thus make adversaries think twice about launching strikes.

Published in Dawn, September 20th, 2025