Dawn Editorials 21st September 2025

Justices vs IHC

THE judiciary’s decline will be underwritten by the apathy of those it depends on to fight vigorously for its integrity and independence.

It is this realisation, perhaps, that prompted five senior judges of the Islamabad High Court to march to the Supreme Court on Friday. There, they lodged separate but similar petitions against what they, and many in the legal community, consider serious issues undermining the IHC’s integrity and independence.

Images of the five justices, seated around a table, waiting — as ordinary petitioners do — while court staff processed their paperwork quickly made their way to social media. They were shared widely as the nation processed with growing trepidation the most visible symptom yet of what seems to be the judiciary’s hastening collapse. The petitioner judges themselves framed it in similar terms: “The demolition of the IHC and its independence, that is being witnessed today, is only because the petitioner judges dared to object to the executive’s interference in their judicial work and uphold their oath as judges of the IHC.”

This is an alarming development. The judiciary, one of the pillars of the state, has signalled that it may be too divided to be able to keep the constitutional order stable. The implications of this will not be lost on the public. Nor should they be lost on the powerful. The authorities should not need reminding that the Constitution envisions a tripartite separation of powers whereby each branch of the state is supposed to be independent.

The doctrine is meant to keep any institution from accumulating so much power that the prospect of political tyranny becomes a possibility. Worryingly, Pakistan seems to be making itself quite comfortable with absolutism. Where once ideals like civil liberties and independent institutions found spirited champions willing to fight for them, one now sees a complacency that too often resembles complete surrender.

Perhaps it was frustration with the status quo that pushed five serving judges to take such an extreme step. When justice becomes hard to come by, it must be fought for. That this fight has been taken to a court is a sign that, perhaps, not all is lost. As long as the courts can be expected to do justice, there is hope for course correction. It is when hope is lost that anarchy takes over.

Other countries in this corner of the world have seen violent upheavals in recent years over different strains of state dysfunction. All those with power, political or any other kind, must therefore work to prevent any such crisis from unfolding in Pakistan. The constitutional order and the boundaries it demarcates must be respected, and the law should remain above all other considerations. It is time justice is done, and is seen to be done.

Published in Dawn, September 21st, 2025

Erratic waters

THE world’s water cycle is veering between extremes. The World Meteorological Organisation’s latest State of Global Water Resources report finds that in 2024 only a third of river basins saw “normal” conditions. The rest swung from parched to flooded, confirming a trend of erratic flows now in its sixth year. Glaciers, too, are in retreat: 450 gigatonnes of ice vanished last year, equivalent to 1.2mm of sea-level rise. Most small-glacier regions have already passed their ‘peak water’ point, meaning they will now feed less water into rivers as the ice diminishes. In Pakistan, the Indus, which sustains over 240m people, registered above-normal discharge in 2024. But the excess is deceptive. It reflects volatility, not stability. Heavy spring rains last year triggered flash floods that flattened crops and devastated communities. This year, torrential monsoon rains again caused flooding and have done little to stabilise supplies. Meanwhile, groundwater continues to be pumped out faster than it can be replenished. In a country where agriculture swallows over 90pc of available freshwater, this volatility is not a marginal concern but an existential threat. The WMO also confirms that 2024 was the hottest year since records began. That matters especially for the Hindu Kush-Himalayan glaciers, which feed the Indus and are shrinking at alarming rates. As meltwater declines, Pakistan’s dependence on erratic monsoons will deepen. Too much rain brings ruin; too little brings hunger.

None of this should surprise us. The country has endured devastating floods in 2010 and 2022, which displaced millions and erased years of development. Yet little has changed since. Groundwater is unregulated; irrigation remains wasteful; urban drainage is in shambles. Water-sharing among provinces is fraught with mistrust. The Indus Waters Treaty with India, already under strain, may face new pressures as flows turn unpredictable. The lesson is that Pakistan’s water crisis is not episodic but structural. Treating floods and droughts as isolated disasters misses the point: they are both faces of the same climate-driven volatility. The country needs investment in monitoring, early-warning systems and climate-resilient infrastructure. More importantly, it needs governance reforms to manage its most precious resource equitably and efficiently. As the WMO makes clear, the global water cycle is becoming more capricious. Pakistan, still tied to a single river system, cannot afford to remain unprepared.

Published in Dawn, September 21st, 2025

Reko Diq promise

THE latest escalation in the cost of the first phase of the Reko Diq copper and gold project appears to reflect the concerns of the miner, Barrick Gold, over the potential risks to the scheme’s timely execution. On Friday, the government raised the cost to $7.7bn — a staggering 79pc increase over an initial estimate of $4.3bn made barely two and a half years ago. This is the second revision since March when the Economic Coordination Committee cleared a cost of $6.8bn on the basis of a technical study conducted by the miner. Media reports suggest that the fresh hike in the total cost, which includes $5.8bn in capital expenditure, is attributed to higher project financing needs, potential price shocks and contingency allocations to absorb price shocks during the mine development period.

While escalation in a large-scale mining venture is not something unexpected, the sheer size of the jump in mine development costs is mind-boggling and can be attributed to economic volatility and uncertainty in the country. The project’s strategic and economic significance for Pakistan, especially Balochistan, is immense. With lifetime net cash flows from the mine — which is expected to start commercial operations in 2028 — projected at $70bn, Reko Diq has the potential to provide a long-awaited boost to Balochistan’s underdeveloped economy while tackling Pakistan’s liquidity problems. Yet, the inclusion of $2bn in new financing requirements and a $390m sovereign-backed loan for railway connectivity underscores the heavy fiscal burden the state is assuming. Cost escalations, if not managed, could end up eroding much of the project’s prospective cash flow. Worse, delay in the project’s implementation can hold up the promise of prosperity for Balochistan’s people. That would only increase the province’s alienation from the state. If Reko Diq is to be the project that redefines Balochistan and Pakistan’s economic trajectory, it must be executed according to the given timelines, and without further cost escalation.

Published in Dawn, September 21st, 2025