Dawn Editorials 26th September 2025

Poverty trap

THE new World Bank report, Reclaiming Momentum Towards Prosperity, is a sobering reminder that Pakistan’s current growth and development model is no longer fit to sustain reduction in poverty and inequality.

The model, which supported initial gains in poverty alleviation before running aground, has already eroded two decades of progress as poverty trends reversed over the past three years. A new development trajectory is needed, one which prioritises inclusive growth, equity and sustained investment in human capital, the WB said.

The bank also called for the overhaul of the present development model at the report’s launch in Islamabad recently. “Reforms that expand access to quality services, protect households from shocks and create better jobs — especially for the bottom 40pc — are essential to break cycles of poverty and deliver durable, inclusive growth,” it said.

Poverty, which had declined from 64.3pc in 2001-02 to 21.9pc in 2018-19, has been climbing again.

It rose to 24.7pc in 2019-20, dipped briefly to 18.3pc in 2021-22, and then surged to 25.3pc in 2023-24 — a seven percentage point increase in just two years. If confirmed by the Household Integrated Economic Survey 2023-24, currently underway, it would represent a significant reversal.

The WB rightly identifies multiple shocks — Covid-19, inflation, floods, political instability, and macroeconomic stress, resulting in low and volatile growth — as important triggers. But it is equally clear that the deeper problem lies in a consumption-driven growth model, which has failed to deliver resilience, jobs or equitable progress. That “progress in poverty reduction is threatened by structural vulnerabilities” is a warning about the fragility of a system relying too heavily on unsustainable growth patterns.

The report acknowledges that Pakistan’s social protection programmes have shielded many families from destitution. But, as it makes clear, this cannot replace transformative reforms to remedy structural imbalances, improve service delivery and build resilience for long-term gains.

As rightly pointed out, education and health spending have hardly closed inequality gaps. Overreliance on indirect taxation continues to depress household incomes, hitting the poor the hardest while sparing the elites.

Structural imbalances — from elite capture and regressive fiscal policies to weak public service delivery and labour market constraints — will keep most Pakistanis trapped in poverty. Abysmal human development indicators make the picture even bleaker. Nearly 40pc of children are stunted. One in four primary school-age children is out of school, and three out of four who attend cannot write or read after five years of education.

Half the population lack safe drinking water; nearly a third lack safe sanitation. Over 85pc of jobs are informal, offering little security or upward mobility. Women and youth remain largely excluded from the workforce. How can a country expect to build a prosperous future on such shaky foundations?

Published in Dawn, September 26th, 2025

Vaccine challenge

PAKISTAN’S rollout of the world’s first cancer-prevention vaccine has been sobering. A 12-day campaign, ending tomorrow, to vaccinate 13m girls against HPV — the virus that causes cervical cancer — has reached just 4.5m. That is barely a third of the target. Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among Pakistan’s women, with two in three of those diagnosed not surviving. Yet a vaccine that is safe, free, and long proven elsewhere has struggled to gain acceptance. It is already part of immunisation schedules in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Bangladesh. The uptake failure reveals a problem Pakistan has long known but not fixed: the gap between medical science and public trust. In Karachi, the country’s largest city, only a third of eligible girls were vaccinated, with coverage in Keamari a dismal 12pc. By contrast, smaller districts in interior Sindh surpassed 80pc, helped by local leaders who urged families to participate. Where trusted voices were absent, social-media agitators filled the void, fuelling suspicion. The pattern is familiar. Polio campaigns have faced the same cycle of myth-making and refusals — and, at their worst, vaccinators being roughhoused, kidnapped, or killed. Now HPV teams too are coming under pressure. In Mandi Bahauddin, a Lady Health Worker was beaten while carrying out vaccinations, underscoring the risks borne by front-line staff. Such incidents deepen mistrust and deter other vaccinators, leaving girls unprotected against a deadly but preventable disease.

The missing link is awareness. A few social media posts and a minister publicly vaccinating his daughter cannot substitute for sustained engagement. Parents need to hear not only from doctors but also from those they trust, such as teachers and religious leaders. Civil-society groups can help map refusal hotspots, address concerns in local languages, and reassure parents through direct communication. Out-of-school girls — nearly half the target group — must also be reached with dedicated outreach. The government must learn from this first phase. Risk-mapping resistance, investing in parental counselling, and integrating HPV into routine immunisation is essential. Above all, it must treat this not as a one-off campaign but as a long-term commitment. The WHO wants 90pc of girls worldwide vaccinated against HPV by 2030. Pakistan aims to meet this goal. It will not do so without treating communication as seriously as logistics. Vaccinating girls now can protect lives later.

Published in Dawn, September 26th, 2025

Unnecessary wrangling

KARACHI’S transport woes are well-documented. Pakistan’s biggest city and economic engine has no integrated public transport system, leaving commuters in the lurch. Belated efforts by the state have thrown up projects like the Green Line bus system, while more bus lines are in the works. But bureaucratic wrangling between the city authorities and the federal government has aggravated matters, resulting in delayed projects, dug-up roads, and monstrous traffic. One example of this paralysis is the dispute over the Green Line project. The centre had recently decided to extend the route of the bus service, yet Mayor Murtaza Wahab has shut down construction work because, according to him, the federal body executing the project failed to secure a no-objection certificate from the KMC. The PML-N and MQM claim the PPP mayor is “obstructing” development work, and that a fresh NOC is not required.

Whatever the legal status of the extension work, there should be no room for politicking over development schemes, as this hurts Karachi’s citizens, including taxpayers. When projects are abandoned midway or delayed due to discord between the centre, the provincial government and the city authorities, it results in dug-up thoroughfares, which make Karachi’s nightmarish traffic worse. Another example of official negligence is the Red Line bus project, being executed by the Sindh government. Launched in 2022, the provincial authorities say there is no chance of the scheme being completed even by December 2026. Meanwhile, thousands of commuters have to navigate a perpetually under-construction University Road, which remains potholed and pockmarked. When it comes to development schemes, all tiers of government should put their egos aside, and work seamlessly and professionally for the benefit of citizens. Such disputes also raise questions about Karachi’s administrative structure. The present set-up is not working, which means the megacity needs an elected local government answerable to its people.

Published in Dawn, September 26th, 2025