DAWN Editorials - 4th March 2025

[faheemustad]

IMF scrutiny

AN IMF delegation is in Islamabad to assess progress on the Fund’s ongoing $7bn funding programme amidst hopes that the review will not encounter any serious obstacles that could delay the next tranche.

The mission will evaluate how Pakistan has done on quantitative performance criteria, structural benchmarks and indicative targets for the first half of the current fiscal year. There have been some “technical slippages”, such as delays in meeting the deadlines for certain goals, like legislation on agriculture tax.


Officials insist that they have covered all the bases, although the failure to meet the tax target will likely remain a major source of worry. Yet, the officials are confident that the IMF will ignore the slippages in the tax target because of a “higher-than-targeted primary budget surplus and greater-than-estimated revenue-to-GDP ratio”.

The FBR attributes the shortfall largely to reduced tax collection from imports, sluggish LSM growth and an unexpected drop in inflation. The IMF’s response to the tax shortfall remains to be seen. However, the stock market’s decline betrays investors’ anxiety at the anticipated contingency measures under the Fund’s pressure to pull off the actual tax target.

The investors’ anxiety notwithstanding, the IMF’s scrutiny of Pakistan’s performance is most likely to progress smoothly without any harsh new conditions for the second half of the present fiscal year, or punitive demands from the lender for tax slippages. That said, the ongoing review will be critical in determining how the economy moves forward.

On its success depend the strengthening of economic stability, official flows from other multilateral agencies, and upgradation of the sovereign credit rating, which is crucial to Islamabad’s plans to raise funds from international bond markets. Any hiccups in the programme would put paid to these plans and lead to a new wave of uncertainty and volatility.

For now, the macroeconomic indicators suggest a temporary reprieve: the rupee has held steady, inflation has plunged to 1.4pc, the current account is running a surplus of over $600m, remittances have jumped to over $3bn a month, and exports are showing resilience.


These improvements are mostly due to financial support from the IMF and bilateral lenders, as well as stability in the global commodity markets. The price for this fragile stability has been massive though: a sharp slowdown in domestic growth as well as rising unemployment and poverty.

With the second Trump presidency in the US shaking up the global economic and political order, the need for freeing the economy from the clutches of the forces of status quo and restructuring it to get it back on its feet has never been so compelling. The current IMF bailout could be the last opportunity to avoid a repeat of the past.

Published in Dawn, March 4th, 2025


Diplomatic protocol

IT is a fact that KP — which shares a long border with Afghanistan — is directly affected by cross-border terrorism, while people on both sides of the frontier share centuries-old tribal, cultural, and linguistic links. Yet where the conduct of foreign policy is concerned, while the federating units, particularly those sharing borders with neighbouring states, ought to give their input, bilateral negotiations with foreign powers should be the sole prerogative of the centre. This should be kept in mind as the PTI-led KP government seeks to open dialogue channels with the Afghan Taliban regime. While meeting the consul-general of the ‘Islamic Emirate’ on Sunday, KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur reiterated that negotiations with the Afghan side through a tribal jirga would start once the terms of reference were approved by the federal government. While there can be little disagreement with Mr Gandapur’s assertion that negotiations are key to establishing lasting peace, how these parleys are conducted, and by whom, needs further attention. The KP administration has been pushing the idea of direct talks with Kabul for some time now; the chief minister had mentioned the need for ‘tribal diplomacy’ at a meeting two weeks ago, while a similar proposal was also floated last year.

Considering our frigid ties with Kabul, and the fact that dialogue is preferable to confrontation, the Afghan Taliban should be engaged. But the centre must continue to lead this effort, with significant input from KP. Foreign policy should not be allowed to become a victim of political differences. At this time, different parties are in power in all four provinces and the centre; if all provinces were to pursue independent relations with neighbouring states, it would have a negative effect on the cohesion of our foreign policy. That is why external relations should remain the preserve of the centre, with all four provinces providing their input regarding the direction of ties with neighbours. The KP government has reiterated that talks with the Afghan Taliban will remain “aligned with security and foreign policies”. The best way to maintain this alignment is for the peace initiative to be led by the foreign ministry, where professional diplomats aware of the on-ground situation are advised by elected representatives and the provincial administrations concerned. It would be inadvisable for the provinces to take solo flights on foreign policy.

Published in Dawn, March 4th, 2025


Polio politics

THE dispute between the centre and Punjab over the detection of polio cases in Mandi Bahauddin is unnecessary and dangerous. While Punjab officials argue that the child in question does not meet the clinical criteria for polio, the National Institute of Health has confirmed the presence of the virus in her stool sample. At a time when Pakistan remains one of two countries still battling the disease, such discord hampers progress. The controversy surrounding the case in question highlights complacency. When health authorities contest scientifically confirmed diagnoses and present videos of children running about as ‘evidence’ against polio’s presence, they misunderstand the nature of the disease. Mild cases, where children retain some mobility, are actually indicators of progress in immunisation efforts — not proof that diagnoses are incorrect. Detection of such cases represents a success of our surveillance system, not a failure of our vaccination drives. As the NIH epidemiologist rightly noted, “What may seem like bad news today is actually good news for tomorrow.” This scientific approach must prevail over political considerations and provincial pride.

The path to eradication requires accepting hard facts. Each confirmed case — whether in Punjab, Sindh, or elsewhere — demands immediate response, not denial. Our surveillance systems must remain vigilant enough to detect even atypical presentations, especially as we approach the endgame of eradication. Moving forward, both federal and provincial authorities must prioritise unity over division. The centre should ensure transparent communication of test results and diagnostic criteria, while provinces must accept scientific findings without defensiveness. Joint training of healthcare workers on recognising varying presentations of polio will boost our detection capabilities. Pakistan’s children deserve protection from a preventable disease that continues to threaten their futures. This requires putting aside jurisdictional disputes and embracing collaborative action. Only through acknowledging every case — mild or severe — can we develop targeted strategies to finally put polio behind us.

Published in Dawn, March 4th, 2025