DAWN Editorials - 10th March 2025

[zarnishhayat]

Water scarcity

THE Indus River System Authority has warned Punjab and Sindh, the main breadbaskets of the country, to brace themselves for up to 35pc water shortages for the remaining period of the current Rabi crops, including the staple wheat harvest.

The warning comes amid reports that the country’s two largest dams, Tarbela and Mangla, are mere days away from hitting dead level. There is a likelihood that Punjab and Sindh might face a 30-35pc shortfall while operating the two reservoirs on the run-of-the-river mode at or around dead levels, the water regulator has told the provinces. This is in line with Irsa’s forecast on Oct 2 that dam storage would reach dead level towards the end of the winter crop cycle.

Though alarming, the warning is hardly a surprise since growing water shortages for the summer and winter crop seasons have become the ‘new normal’ in the last several years due to the increasing number of dry days in a year as well as the shrinking glaciers resulting from climate change. Reduced precipitation is evident from the 40pc below-normal winter rains and snowfall between September and mid-January this year, which have created drought-like conditions across the country.

Dry conditions still persist in many areas in spite of the February rains that have largely offset drought-related risks to the new wheat harvest. Dry weather on most days has meant that the winter months were reported by the Met Office to be hotter than usual.


The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and abnormal rains, show that we are already experiencing post-climate change conditions. Ranking as we do among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, we must urgently prepare ourselves for the costly and disastrous impacts of such events on our lives, livelihoods, food security and economy.

The need to meet the climate challenge is even greater when a country like Pakistan is prone to multiple disastrous events at the same time. For example, in 2022, we were first hit by a heatwave and drought and then flash floods that displaced 33m people, followed by landslides that destroyed infrastructure in KP and other northern regions. Tens of thousands of those affected are yet to be resettled and re-employed.

Sadly, our policymakers are not investing enough in helping the people and economy withstand the effects of climate change, though the danger is very visible. Climate disasters can severely stretch a country’s resources. They can ruin countries unprepared for them. This year we may have averted any significant damage to our staple food despite water shortages and drought. But who can guarantee that we will be as lucky next year?

Published in Dawn, March 10th, 2025


Reckless rhetoric


ONCE again, the Indian leadership gave in to their worst impulses, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar making dangerous remarks about Azad Jammu & Kashmir. Speaking at Chatham House in London, Mr Jaishankar said that the “stolen part of Kashmir” (AJK) must be ‘returned’ to India for the issue to be “solved.” Mr Jaishankar has not only displayed an utter disregard for historical facts but has further poisoned the well of potential dialogue between the two nuclear neighbours. As the Foreign Office pointed out, Jammu and Kashmir remains an internationally recognised disputed territory. The FO’s assertion that “India’s prevarication cannot change this reality” strikes at the heart of the matter. No amount of constitutional tinkering or attempts to alter the demography of held Kashmir can erase the fact that the region’s final status must be determined in accordance with relevant UN Security Council resolutions through a free and impartial plebiscite.

This is not the first time the BJP government has resorted to such provocation. Since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, the Modi administration has sought to present occupied Kashmir as a settled issue, despite clear evidence of continued repression. The BJP’s attempts to force demographic changes, suppress dissent, and stifle journalism in the region have only served to deepen Kashmiri alienation. Reports from international watchdogs such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have documented the grave human rights abuses in the held territory, including arbitrary detentions and crackdowns on press freedoms. No amount of rhetorical grandstanding can erase these realities. Pakistan has repeatedly extended offers of dialogue to India, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent remarks in the AJK Legislative Assembly, in which he invited India to the negotiating table while emphasising that Pakistan would not compromise on its national interests. However, India prefers brinkmanship over diplomacy. The path forward remains clear. Rather than engaging in such escalation, India should heed Pakistan’s offers for dialogue. Global stakeholders must also play their part by holding India accountable for its increasingly belligerent stance. Try as they might, Indian leaders cannot change the fact that they are Pakistan’s neighbours. In these tense times, prudence cannot be understated. For lasting peace in South Asia, India must abandon such reckless rhetoric. Anything less is a recipe for continued instability in the region.

Published in Dawn, March 10th, 2025


Mosquito season

AS temperatures rise, the threat of dengue looms large over Pakistan. Its warning signs have already arrived. Dengue mosquito larvae were detected in 1,471 housesduring a surveillance campaign in Rawalpindi. While the Punjab government has issued directives for amplified public awareness and a comprehensive programme to lower dengue incidence, the country requires more deeply explored precautionary methods to block a wave. Besides, climate change has led to heat- and cold-resistant mosquito species as well as a shift in the pattern of vector-borne diseases. Last year, dengue cases showed an upward trend despite cooler temperatures — in November,Peshawar logged 85 new cases of denguehaemorrhagic fever. The overall picture was not heartening: according to a National Institute of Health report, Pakistan recorded 20,057 dengue cases in 2024. A consolidated approach involving inter-departmental coordination for strengthened supervision and timely purging of larvae throughout the year, with penalties for those who flout the stated SOPs, is the answer.

Punjab has known success. In 2011, the province adopted a game-changing strategy involving collaboration between Pakistani, Sri Lankan and Indonesian medical experts to help the government fight the illness. Along with proven procedures, medicines and machinery arrived in the country, including blood separator machines from Germany. Perhaps, it is time to revisit and replicate an upgraded version of the same in the country. We cannot afford another year of indolence. The federal and provincial administrations must embark on extensive fumigation operations in rural and urban areas, apart from preventing waterlogging to limit the havoc wreaked by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. All aspects of deterrence must be as fast-paced as mosquito breeding. Clean and ventilated living conditions with cost-free dengue tests are vital to keep swathes of people safe from infection. Pakistan must ensure that vector-borne misery does not mark the onset of each season.

Published in Dawn, March 10th, 2025