DAWN Editorials - 16th March 2025

[zarnishhayat]

Fault lines

IT was a distressing spectacle, though a sadly predictable one. As the National Assembly took up for discussion the recent hijacking of the Jaffar Express and the brutal killing of several of its passengers by BLA terrorists, it was evident how much damage has been wreaked on national unity by the gradual erosion of Pakistan’s democracy. Nursing some bitter grievances, our elected representatives, instead of using the sessions to dissect how this devastating incident occurred and debating parliament’s best response to it, appeared more focused on political point-scoring than national interest. Their indifference to the gravity of the moment was staggering as they traded accusations, instead of capitalising on the occasion to present a united front against a common adversary. It was particularly unfortunate that a federal minister, who ought to have been demonstrating a much greater sense of responsibility considering the circumstances, instead accused the main opposition party of ‘sympathising with terrorists’.

It was quite ironic that the minister in question was regretting that the incident had been politicised by the opposition even as he did the very same himself with an unnecessarily provocative speech. One may reasonably assume that this is precisely the kind of divisiveness that the enemies of this country would like to see. It is also the kind of distraction that will allow those responsible for preventing such a serious lapse of security evade any real accountability for their shortcomings. The train hijacking should be a wake-up call to those who have hitherto refused to acknowledge repeated warnings that the state’s favoured policies have often spelt disaster in the long run. The nation needs to be allowed to heal, and for that to happen, its powerful elites must stop attempting to divide it constantly based on a few narrow interests. National unity cannot be built on words alone — it demands accountability, vision, and an end to the politics of division.

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2025


Embracing crypto

IT seems a little prod was all it took for Pakistan to finally ‘embrace the future’. The Pakistan Crypto Council has been formed as promised, mere weeks after a delegation representing American interests in cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies called on Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb to hawk its wares. According to a press handout, the PCC will oversee the regulation and integration of blockchain technology and digital assets into the country’s financial landscape. The Finance Division has declared the PCC a “significant step in the country’s efforts to regulate and integrate blockchain technology and digital assets into its financial landscape” while promising that “The council is set to play a pivotal role in formulating policies, fostering innovation, and ensuring a secure and forward-thinking approach to crypto adoption in Pakistan”. It sounds wonderful on paper, but the proof of the pudding is in the eating. After all, the state is still quite devoted to the idea of centralised control and conducting its business on paper, while the financial system remains tightly regulated. It will be interesting to see how disruptive technologies like blockchain and cryptocurrencies can be adopted in such an environment.

The absence of trained researchers and computer scientists from the PCC is another area of concern. Given the number of snake oil salesmen in the cryptocurrency and blockchain domains, one would expect a state-level authority to seek out the services of experts who have actually helped develop these technologies to advise it about how they may be capitalised on. Instead, the PCC, in its present form, seems to have only a single individual who may be considered somewhat knowledgeable about blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies, and while they seem experienced as a business and marketing strategist, their profile does not mention any experience as either a developer or researcher. It is hoped, therefore, that more technical experts will be included in the Council as it expands. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology have, no doubt, shown immense promise in improving various aspects of our lives. However, the state should resist hopping onto the bandwagon just because of the buzz. If it is serious about establishing Pakistan as a major player in these technologies, it needs to include scientists and technologists in the PCC so they can advise policy along with bankers, regulators, legal advisers and business strategists.

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2025


After the review

THE successful conclusion of the first performance review of the IMF’s extended $7bn funding programme for the first half of the fiscal year is a positive development for the cash-strapped economy.

The end-of-mission statement acknowledges that “programme implementation has been strong, and the discussions have made considerable progress in several areas”, including fiscal consolidation for durable reduction in public debt, tight monetary policy to keep inflation in check, energy sector reforms, the structural reform agenda to accelerate growth, social protection, and health and education spending.

That the IMF and authorities here have “made significant progress towards reaching a staff-level agreement on the first review” underlines that the talks did not encounter any major impediment — a rare occasion in recent years where the lender has refrained from imposing stricter conditions after scrutiny of its programmes in spite of delays in the execution of certain goals and failure to meet benchmark targets.

However, this is where the story of the first review ends and future challenges begins. For now, the IMF has apparently ignored some delays and slippages. Whether it will continue to provide similar waivers on unmet goals over the remaining life of the bailout or start tightening the screws will be known once the Memorandum of Economic and Fiscal Policies is released by the lender and talks over the next budget conclude.

More worrisome is the increasing impatience with slow economic growth, as real estate tycoons scramble to persuade the prime minister to push faster growth by granting yet another tax amnesty and other concessions to the housing sector. The same group, which had convinced Imran Khan’s government to allow a tax amnesty and lucrative incentives for the construction industry, is now active, and trying to coax Shehbaz Sharif to grant it something similar. Stepping into this trap would be suicidal, both economically and politically.

Ordinary people have paid a heavy price because of such experiments and do not have any strength to repeat them. The government would be doing them and itself a favour by focusing solely on restructuring the economy, preparing it for durable growth by attracting foreign private investments to boost productivity and exports rather than embarking on wasteful misadventures.

So far the government is delaying any decisions on such proposals. But for how long? Facing a formidable political challenge from the PTI in its stronghold of Punjab, it will increasingly come under pressure from ‘pro-growth’ lobbies within its own ranks and from outside in the coming months. Any unseen inflows from the Gulf could make it jettison the reforms agenda and pursue consumption-based growth. That would be nothing short of a disaster for the country and its people.

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2025