DAWN Editorials - 20th March 2025

[zarnishhayat]

Victim complex

INDIAN Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent comments to an American podcaster regarding the Pakistan-India relationship are detached from reality and reflect a highly selective reading of the history of the nearly eight-decade-old dispute.

While the relationship has been marked by great complexity, with mostly lows and a few highs since partition, Mr Modi painted Pakistan as the villain of the piece, with India the innocent victim of Islamabad’s conniving schemes. The reality is quite different. Mistakes have been made by both sides, but in the recent past it has been India that has been resisting Pakistan’s overtures for peace. As the Foreign Office put it, the Indian PM’s remarks were “misleading and one-sided”.

Mr Modi seemed ‘hurt’ that Pakistan had engaged in a ‘proxy war’ against his country, and that Islamabad replied to his personal attempts to mend fences with “hostility”. Interestingly, while the podcast appeared to be nothing more than an attempt at Pakistan-bashing and reimagining history, the Indian leader offered no way towards peace.

It is clear, therefore, that it is not Pakistan but India that is not interested in harmony in South Asia. This country has been advocating dialogue, while India refuses to even play cricket in Pakistan, as the recent debacle over the Champions Trophy illustrated. Pakistan indeed has its flaws, and mistakes have been made by the state in the past, such as letting certain groups indulge in cross-border adventurism. But times have changed, and these are matters of the past.

Moreover, it should be remembered that India has also encouraged cross-border terrorism in Pakistan, particularly targeting Balochistan through its malign activities. And Pakistan is not alone; the Indian security apparatus has spread its tentacles to the West, deploying assassins in Canada and the US to target Sikh activists.

Therefore, Indian foreign policy, particularly under the BJP’s watch, is not exactly guided by ahimsa, but by active meddling in the affairs of sovereign states. Mr Modi should also have recalled the role of his own intelligence operatives in destabilising Pakistan while blaming this country for not playing nice.

The truth is that from sabotaging Saarc and trying to isolate Pakistan diplomatically to constantly raising the bogey of cross-border terrorism, it is India that has rebuffed Pakistan’s efforts to make peace. Instead of criticising Pakistan publicly, India needs to revisit its own negative approach.

If New Delhi is sincere about bringing peace to South Asia, let it agree to an unconditional dialogue with Islamabad about all irritants. If India has plaints against Pakistan, this country also has a long list of grievances against its eastern neighbour. The only way to bring lasting peace is to launch uninterrupted and uninterruptible dialogue to address all issues. Is India ready?

Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2025


LSM decline

THE slump in large-scale manufacturing amidst the adjustments the economy is forced to make in order to stay afloat comes as no surprise. With economic growth rates having nearly bottomed in recent years, big industry output has grown negatively since July 2022, barring a few months of a slight uptick in LSM output. Although economic activity has gained some traction as underlined by high-frequency indicators, including the sale of automobiles, POL products and cement, as well as import volumes and credit to the private sector, the real sector remains under stress. Multiple factors — the high cost of credit, heavy taxation, a steep surge in domestic power and gas prices, dollar liquidity crunch leading to unspoken curbs on imports, declining cotton production, etc — are dragging down LSM growth. Further, the use of fertilisers is decreasing and people are spending less on food and beverages. Likewise, the construction industry slowdown has had a harsh impact on iron and steel output. That said, certain sectors like textiles and cement have shown a slight uptick due to a modest rise in exports, and automobiles sales are recovering on a low base effect.

Overall, big industry recorded a negative growth of 1.78pc during the first seven months of the current fiscal year from a year ago. In FY24, LSM had contracted 0.03pc compared to a 0.92pc growth in the preceding year. No doubt there is reason to be worried about the country’s declining LSM output. However, we cannot expect big industry to grow when the entire economy is in slow mode, despite the reduced volatility that has created a semblance of stability and slight recovery, supported by IMF funding, over the last one and a half years. Inflation is down but significant risks remain; the current account is in surplus because of a record increase in remittances, but pressures on the external account are re-emerging due to rising imports and weakening foreign private and official capital flows. The recent recovery notwithstanding, Pakistan’s economy lacks the strength to walk let alone run. Any push to accelerate industrial growth at the moment would land us into deeper trouble. The only way forward is to shed our old habits of achieving growth through imported consumption, while sticking to a slow-growth mode until the pro-growth reforms agenda is implemented to remove structural issues that are pulling down the industry.

Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2025


Education interrupted

THE sudden closure of major universities in Balochistan, ostensibly due to ‘security concerns’, marks another blow to a student population already living under the shadow of apathy and marginalisation. At the time of writing, the University of Balochistan, Sardar Bahadur Khan Women University, and University of Turbat had suspended on-campus activities indefinitely, leaving thousands of students in academic limbo. The proposed solution — online classes —would be laughable if it were not so tragically disconnected from the reality of Balochistan. In a province where reliable internet access is a luxury rather than a basic utility, how can students participate in online education? The casual assurance that students from areas with connectivity problems will receive ‘concessions’ fails to address the basic inequity.

These closures follow a disturbing pattern of state indifference towards students. For years, we have witnessed Baloch students from campuses across Pakistan being ‘disappeared’, their education and lives disrupted under the guise of national security. Now, even within their home province, their right to education faces further erosion. While the violence, including the recent attack on the Jaffar Express, across the province are deeply concerning, the government must address root causes rather than punish innocent students. Shutting down educational institutions only deepens the alienation and resentment that fuel unrest in the first place. For Balochistan’s youth, these closures represent more than just missed lectures. They symbolise the state’s continued unwillingness to invest in the province’s human capital and future. The state must recognise that genuine security cannot be achieved by sacrificing education. Rather than closing universities, it should address the legitimate grievances of Baloch students while providing adequate security measures that allow campuses to function. Most importantly, any temporary shift to online learning must be accompanied by immediate investments in digital infrastructure across the province. Balochistan’s youth deserve the same educational opportunities afforded to students across Pakistan — and the dignity of being treated as citizens whose futures matter.

Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2025