DAWN Editorials - 8th August 2025

[zarnishhayat]

Tough choices WITH resurgent militant activity in KP’s tribal districts, and public fears about further violence due to terrorism and counterterrorism operations, the state faces unenviable choices.

Over the past few days, the KP government has hosted three major jirgas in different parts of the former tribal belt to gauge public opinion about how to deal with resurgent terrorist activity. The local tribes have demanded talks with the Afghan Taliban, as well as negotiations with banned groups, while some reports suggest a consensus in the merged areas against further military operations — perhaps it is in response to these concerns that the state minister for interior has said there will be no operation. Local jirgas elsewhere have endorsed similar demands. Meanwhile, the KP administration has planned to host a grand jirga to chart a way forward.

For over 20 years, KP, including the former Fata region, has faced almost constant violence on account of both terrorism and CT operations. People have lost loved ones and faced displacement. Fatigue and desperation after two decades of conflict have led the tribal people to demand talks with the militants and an end to kinetic action.

Yet while the views of the local people should be heard, it must also be remembered that terrorist groups have mostly broken the pacts signed with the state. There is no guarantee they will honour their agreements this time; peace deals may offer temporary relief but eventually collapse. Moreover, the state — specifically the military — refers to the banned TTP as ‘India-backed Fitna al Khawarij’; will this description remain if talks go ahead?

Secondly, will the militants agree to renounce violence in case of successful negotiations? Unless they do, any resultant peace deal will only weaken the state. Furthermore, the state has sent several delegations to talk to the Afghan Taliban, in order to urge them to rein in Afghanistan-based militants. No tangible long-term effects of these talks have been visible in the form of reduced violence.

Perhaps we find ourselves at this juncture because ever since the ‘war on terror’ was launched in this region, the state’s CT policy has failed to create lasting peace. This is despite the fact that we have lost thousands of civilians, military men and police personnel in the war against militancy. Despite successive military operations, as well as CT policies such as NAP and NAP 2.0, and multiple attempts to stamp out violent extremism, we find ourselves back to square one.

A thorough review of the state’s CT policies is required by the civilian leadership, the intelligence community, the establishment and area experts. This cycle of rising militancy, kinetic action, displacement, temporary calm and resurgent militancy must be broken, and a permanent solution to Pakistan’s militancy problem found.

Published in Dawn, August 8th, 2025

Policy crunch

WHEN it comes to learning from past failures, Pakistan’s policymakers have shown a remarkable tendency to do quite the opposite. The latest attempt to allegedly push down the exchange rate to an arbitrary target of Rs250 per dollar is yet another example of how short-term gains can take precedence over long-term economic stability in the country. Even pushback from the market has failed to deter policymakers from pursuing the artificial benchmark — a ‘policy’ that has previously led to rapid and sharp devaluations, pushed the country to the brink of default and undermined export competitiveness. Grey trade has also been flourishing, starving the legitimate market of liquidity ever since the authorities put pressure on the market players to meet their whimsical target. The crunch is forcing people to purchase dollars for their legitimate needs, such as travel and education, at a very high premium from the grey market.

The exchange rate is under pressure on multiple fronts — ranging from a seasonal surge in demand by individuals to an uptick in imports. The State Bank’s directive requiring banks to meet import payments through their own exports and remittances inflows is further fuelling the dollar’s appreciation. Facing a mismatch between dollar inflows and outflows, banks are now selling dollars to importers at a premium above the interbank rate, or refusing to entertain them at all. Exchange companies report a spike in demand for illegal transfers out of Pakistan, driven in part by businesses relocating to Dubai. The mounting pressure on the exchange rate in recent months has also prompted many to hedge by shifting their savings to dollars. The exchange companies insist that there is no dollar crunch. The emergence of the grey market, they argue, has been fuelled by growing demand and speculation. The widening gap between market sentiments and official expectations, say market analysts, shows that the target rate is unrealistic. There is a possibility that the authorities may improve the rupee-dollar parity through administrative measures. For how long, though? The country’s fragile economy does not support a stronger rupee. It will only fuel uncertainty, affect exports and discourage remittances. Sooner or later, market dynamics would have to be allowed to determine the real exchange rate through big depreciations. Otherwise, we will risk another balance-of-payments crisis — or even a potential default.

Published in Dawn, August 8th, 2025

Balochistan’s troubles THE HRCP’s latest fact-finding report confirms what many in Balochistan have alleged for years: the lack of governance and the violation of people’s rights in the province. The report has indicated that enforced disappearances, custodial killings and harassment of families in the province are deliberate. The state’s reluctance to end this practice — despite Supreme Court directives and repeated public outcry — exposes a disregard for constitutional rights and human dignity. Moreover, the use of contentious laws like the Anti-Terrorism (Balochistan Amendment) Act, 2025, which permits 90-day detentions without charge, has deepened alienation in the province. At the other end, peaceful activists are branded as threats to national security while actual militant violence runs rampant.

The rot does not stop there. Elections, as the HRCP points out, have become a farce, with nationalist and progressive parties sidelined through alleged rigging and legal blacklists. The report documents how student leaders and opposition figures are persecuted, jailed, or worse, disappeared. It is no surprise the province suffers from a political vacuum in which unelected actors wield unchecked power and youth live in despair or exile. This is tantamount to state failure. The HRCP also asserts that the province’s mineral wealth is extracted for the benefit of outsiders, while its people are denied education, jobs and representation, and that decisions taken by elected assemblies are routed through controversial investment bodies. All this is seen as a provocation that will only deepen the insurgency. The state must embark on a radical course correction. Repressive laws must be amended or repealed, political freedoms restored, parallel power structures dismantled and security agencies held to account. The people of Balochistan deserve justice, which will, among other things, turn the restive youth away from the militants. The Balochistan issue is one of consequence and must be handled with care.

Published in Dawn, August 8th, 2025