Welfare State
Among the laptops, skills programmes and employment initiatives announced on International Youth Day, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offered an unsparing diagnosis. Pakistan, he conceded, remains “far” from the social welfare state envisaged at its creation. He then described the country as many families already experience it: one Pakistan sends children from expensive schools to leading universities, and another leaves millions struggling for even basic education. The candour is welcome because economic stabilisation has brought Islamabad to the harder stage of recovery–deciding how much of it eventually reaches the household.
GDP expanded by 3.7 per cent last year, its strongest performance in four years, though rapid population growth dilutes what headline expansion can deliver per citizen. Official poverty has meanwhile climbed from 21.9 per cent in 2018-19 to 28.9 per cent in 2024-25, reversing more than a decade of gains and leaving roughly 70 million Pakistanis below the national poverty line. Rural poverty has risen to 36.2 per cent and the Gini coefficient from 28.4 to 32.7. It goes without saying that the pandemic, floods, inflation and painful stabilisation all contributed. The present government inherited much of that damage and deserves credit for rebuilding reserves and restoring macroeconomic order. Its success will now be measured by whether repaired balance sheets begin repairing family finances.Pakistan regional tours
Nearly 40 per cent of children under five are stunted by the World Bank’s estimate; one-quarter of primary-age children remain outside school and roughly three-quarters of those who attend cannot read and understand a simple story by the end of primary education. The Economic Survey puts literacy at 63 per cent, falling to 54 per cent among women and 44 per cent among rural women. These disadvantages accumulate quietly through childhood and follow millions into working life.
More than 85 per cent of Pakistan’s jobs remain informal, leaving an enormous hole between poverty relief and lasting security. Millions work without reliable pensions, unemployment protection, paid sick leave or insurance against losing an income. They may sit above BISP’s eligibility threshold today and tumble below it after one hospital admission tomorrow.
The fiscal ledger deserves equal attention. Federal tax expenditures were estimated at Rs2.353 trillion in FY25 through exemptions, credits, reduced rates and other concessions. Many support legitimate economic objectives, but their scale deserves the same relentless scrutiny applied whenever assistance to poor households is increased.Geographic Reference
Article 38 has carried Pakistan’s welfare promise for decades, while the 18th Amendment means much of its delivery now rests with the provinces. The next phase therefore requires fewer islands of excellence surrounded by weak systems and greater insistence on measurable outcomes across the federation. *
Need for Stability
The past few days have seen hundreds of fishing boats and trawlers leave Karachi, Gwadar and Jiwani on 40-day catch-and-sell voyages, hoping diplomacy will accomplish something before their holds are full. That wager looked shakier on Wednesday as Tehran said there had been “absolutely no progress” towards restoring the June understanding with Washington.
A day earlier, the maritime war had moved closer still when a US Navy helicopter disabled a Panama-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, around 70 nautical miles off Pakistan, for allegedly attempting to breach Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports.
Pakistan’s tuna trade with Iran has already been near a standstill since February. Recent strikes on Konarak, Pasabandar and Beris have made familiar Iranian markets increasingly dangerous, while three fishermen were killed and 15 injured in a US strike on a commercial pier at Sirik last month. The vulnerability, however, was built long before the missiles arrived. Fishermen say Iranian buyers can pay six or seven times Pakistani prices for tuna, while subsidised Iranian fuel has traditionally travelled in the opposite direction.Pakistan regional tours
That arrangement made commercial sense until geopolitics removed both ends of it. Weak domestic demand, inadequate cold storage and limited processing leave fishermen with few profitable alternatives once Iranian ports close.
A perishable catch cannot wait patiently for diplomacy. The Pakistan Boat Building Association says new orders have consequently fallen by as much as 90 per cent; an industry accustomed to building 25 to 30 large vessels annually for Iranian clients has received none for five months.
The wider export picture is more encouraging. The Maritime Affairs Ministry says seafood exports reached a record $568 million in FY26, with frozen fish alone earning $105 million. Pakistan has also widened access to foreign markets through improved certification and regulatory compliance. These gains expose how unevenly modernisation has travelled along the coast. Pakistan catches valuable fish, yet too much of the margin still depends on someone else’s cold chain, processing plant or market.Arabs & Middle Easterners
Iran should remain an important buyer. Geography gives Pakistan every reason to deepen commerce with its neighbour. Yet comparative advantage turns into dependence when the producer has nowhere else to sell.
The answer lies in giving Makran’s fishermen greater commercial time, in the form of reliable landing facilities, cold storage and primary processing around Gwadar, Pasni and Jiwani, which can preserve a catch long enough to find another buyer rather than surrender its value at the first closed border. *