Dawn Editorials 3rd September 2025

Reduced wheat acreage

THE FAO’s assessment of Pakistan’s latest wheat crop is both reassuring and worrying. On the one hand, it celebrates a harvest 5pc higher than the five-year average; on the other, it highlights the troubling fact that wheat acreage has shrunk by 6.5pc as farmers abandon the staple crop for more profitable alternatives. The reduction in wheat acreage was not unexpected. The government’s abolition of the minimum support price and falling rates during the sowing season were among the main reasons why some farmers switched to what they saw as more profitable crops. It was an economic decision: why grow something that yields lower returns? The report notes the woes of wheat farmers from the rain-fed dry regions who constitute nearly a fifth of all staple growers. While canal-irrigated areas are enjoying above-average yields, farmers from the dry regions are vulnerable to drought and water shortages. Their losses can be significant, forcing them to shift to drought-resistant crops.

That said, the declining wheat acreage does not necessarily mean that the government’s policy of withdrawing itself from the market is flawed or misguided. It was long overdue. However, it is a sobering reminder that piecemeal economic reforms risk destabilising the agriculture markets to the detriment of both growers and consumers. The decline in acreage demands that policymakers go beyond the abolition of the support price if they want to make wheat profitable for farmers. Only a functioning and well-regulated market can deliver market stability and ensure profitability for growers — particularly smallholders. Farmers need access to small soft loans for inputs and mechanisation, insurance protection from the vagaries of the weather, training in modern farming and irrigation techniques, removal of exploitative middlemen and stronger linkages with global markets through a liberal wheat trade regime. Unless the reforms are taken to their logical conclusion, we will continue to see risks to food security and rural livelihoods.

Published in Dawn, September 3rd, 2025

Terrorism upswing

THE latest figures regarding the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan indicate that rather than abating, militant insurgencies in KP and Balochistan continue to take a heavy toll. As per data compiled by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict Studies think tank, the country witnessed the highest number of militant attacks in a decade last month; at least 194 people were killed in 143 attacks, most of them security personnel and civilians, while over 230 were injured. KP saw the highest number of attacks, where banned groups such as the TTP have again become active, while Balochistan saw the second highest total, where separatist outfits like BLA have been waging a war against the state. It appears that if we continue on this troubling trajectory, last year’s terrorism-related numbers may be surpassed; according to the PIPS think tank, there were over 520 terrorist attacks in 2024, claiming over 850 lives.

Considering these stark numbers, it is surprising why the outcry against terrorist violence is not louder at both the political and social levels. While there have been large demonstrations in KP — condemning terrorist violence and rejecting continued military operations — the rest of Pakistan seems oblivious to the terrorist threat. Perhaps this is because unlike previous waves, when terrorist groups repeatedly hit the country’s urban centres, this time the violence is mostly limited to the ‘peripheries’, such as the merged tribal districts of KP, and Balochistan. Yet complacency will not buy the state or the public peace. Unless the state employs a holistic counterterrorism policy to permanently uproot the militant threat, this cycle of violence will continue. CT operations alone are not the sole solution; they need to be complemented by multi-sectoral solutions highlighted in NAP and NAP 2.0. People cannot be expected to suffer displacement due to military operations every decade or so, only to see militants return to areas previously cleared. Efforts to check infiltration from Afghanistan must be paired with internal operations to permanently secure territory. Moreover, in Balochistan, along with countering separatist violence, the political process needs to be promoted to help defeat the insurgency. The numbers are very unsettling, and if terrorist groups are not stopped now, they will start looking to expand their areas of operation. The civilian wing of the ruling set-up must clearly enunciate what concrete CT steps it has in mind.

Published in Dawn, September 3rd, 2025

Unity for survival

THEY say adversity makes strange bedfellows. In Pakistan, even calamitous events struggle to do so. Floods have swept through KP, drowned swathes of Punjab after water was released from across the border, and displaced thousands. The destruction is immense. Yet the country’s politicians, rather than rallying together, remain stuck in their habitual quarrels.

A fleeting glimpse of unity came at the opening of the National Assembly session on Monday, when members suspended routine business to focus on the unfolding disaster. The spirit evaporated almost instantly. On the orders of Imran Khan, PTI legislators boycotted a scheduled NDMA briefing. Their absence turned what should have been a vital forum into yet another stage for political one-upmanship.

The instinct to politicise calamity is not confined to one side. A couple of months ago, PTI lawmakers in Punjab tried to present the floods as proof of the provincial government’s failures, only to face worse devastation in KP.

And now, during the NA debate, ministers used up precious time to trumpet their own ‘effective’ responses or to cast blame on rivals and contractors. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, while correctly pointing to encroachments and poor planning, also singled out a company in his home constituency, turning part of his speech into a political broadside. Even amid a shared tragedy, leaders reach for familiar tactics of point-scoring.

Nevertheless, the defence minister was right to call the situation a “man-made disaster”. Successive governments have allowed hotels to sprout on riverbeds, sanctioned housing societies on floodplains and neglected to enforce building codes. Big dams remain mired in politics; small reservoirs and local drainage schemes, which could be completed in a year or two, are ignored. Weather-monitoring is abysmal: Pakistan has 85 stations to cover nearly 800,000 sq km, when thousands would be needed to meet international standards.

No wonder the country lurches blindly from one storm to the next. There are precedents for doing better. During the 2010 floods, leaders did at least convene all-parties meetings and discussed creating an independent relief commission. The spirit was imperfect, but it showed some recognition that disaster could not be fought through mudslinging.

This year’s floods ought to provoke similar realism. Unity is now a matter of survival. Politicians must come together to debate the hard questions: how to complete existing dam projects, build smaller water-storage structures, empower local governments and invest in forecasting capacity. They must also strengthen disaster-resilient infrastructure, enforce zoning laws against construction on riverbeds, upgrade drainage in cities, and expand social protection for displaced families. Climate change is redrawing the map. Three major floods in three provinces this summer alone should be warning enough. The waters have shown no partisanship. Neither should the politicians.

Published in Dawn, September 3rd, 2025