Dawn Editorials 5th January 2026

Ongoing threat

VIOLENCE feels routine in Pakistan. The security situation deteriorated sharply in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of rising terrorism. According to the Pakistan Security Report 2025 by PIPS, the country recorded 699 terrorist attacks, a 34pc increase over 2024. These attacks killed 1,034 people and injured 1,366, reflecting a 21pc rise in fatalities. Overall conflict-related violence — including terrorist attacks, counterterrorism operations, border clashes, and abductions — rose to 1,124 incidents, up 43pc from 2024. These incidents can no longer be viewed as setbacks. They point to a crisis that is expanding in scale and becoming harder to control.

The most striking shift is who is being targeted. Security personnel now make up a large share of those martyred in terrorist attacks. Police stations, patrols and checkpoints have come under repeated assault. Military units have also suffered. Terrorists appear focused on exhausting the state, stretching its forces thin and undermining morale. The return of suicide attacks, after some quieter years, reinforces this assessment. Such attacks require planning, resources and confidence, all signs of regrouping rather than desperation.

The violence is also geographically concentrated. Almost all terrorist attacks took place in KP and Balochistan. In KP’s southern districts, attacks on law-enforcement agencies have become common. In Balochistan, insurgents have expanded their tactics beyond hit-and-run attacks to include highway blockades, kidnappings and infrastructure sabotage. It has become clear that the western belt remains the country’s main security fault line.

The state has responded with force. Counterterrorism operations increased sharply, killing over 1,000 militants. But this heavy reliance on kinetic action points to a deeper problem. Despite hundreds of operations, attacks are rising.

Much of this violence is driven by religiously motivated terrorist groups, particularly the TTP, which has regained much of its strength. Terrorists are adapting quickly, using better weapons, night-fighting equipment and drones, often exploiting local grievances, weak governance and gaps in intelligence coordination. The state, meanwhile, is locked into a cycle of reaction.

There is danger in accepting this as the new normal. While civilian deaths fell slightly, violence against the state is growing. That should offer a lesson. A security policy built mainly on raids and reprisals cannot, on its own, deliver lasting peace, especially when ideological militancy, cross-border sanctuaries and political uncertainty remain unaddressed.

More than firepower is needed to break this cycle. Political clarity, civilian governance in conflict-hit areas, and serious regional engagement are no longer optional. Nor are police reforms, intelligence sharing and judicial follow-through. Without them, the country risks sliding into a permanent state of insecurity.

Published in Dawn, January 5th, 2026

Export decline

THE trend is unmistakable. The sharp fall of 20.4pc in Pakistan’s export shipments last month underscores that the slump stems from structural factors and should no longer be dismissed as a temporary setback. Trade data shows that December marks the fifth consecutive monthly export decline — and the sharpest one — in the first half of the present fiscal. The sustained export contraction heightens the risks to the nation’s external sector recovery as growing imports threaten to erode the gains achieved through demand compression over the past two years. Imports crossing the $6bn mark last month for the first time during the current fiscal year signal that a policy shift towards trade normalisation and liberalisation have revived import demand faster than anticipated. In absolute terms, the $118m boost in imports is quite modest given the country’s size and consumption trends. But when juxtaposed with the sharp contraction in exports, it pushes the monthly trade deficit up by 25pc to $3.7bn. The six-month cumulative picture of trade imbalance is even more worrisome. The $19.2bn trade deficit posted in the July-December period is 35pc higher than last year.

Pakistan’s poor export performance has always remained the weakest link in its external sector stability chain. It has become even more pronounced in recent years amid drying foreign official and private flows, which successive governments used to prop up the feeble balance-of-payments position. The State Bank may use strong remittances and its dollar purchases to finance the trade gap and boost reserves for as long as it can. But reliance on this strategy to offset a structurally widening trade gap has its own risks as it leaves the external account vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and host-country labour market changes. Moreover, sustained intervention to build reserves tightens domestic liquidity and fuels exchange rate pressures. The deteriorating export performance is not a threat only for external sector stability; it also forces policymakers to suppress growth to ward off yet another balance-of-payments crisis. If anything, the latest trade numbers expose a disconnect between stabilisation and sustainability. The economy has moved from crisis management, but has yet to transition to an export-led growth path. Without energy, industrial and trade reforms to improve export competitiveness, the current economic recovery will remain fragile and growth subdued.

Published in Dawn, January 5th, 2026

Playing host

THE new year has begun on a promising note for women’s cricket in Pakistan. Pakistan Cricket Board chairman Mohsin Naqvi has set himself the target of delivering a memorable Women’s Twenty20 World Cup in 2028. The tournament was awarded to Pakistan as compensation after it allowed India to play its Champions Trophy matches last year on neutral venues; it will be the first major ICC women’s tournament hosted by the country. It will also be the first World Cup Pakistan will host since it co-hosted the 1996 Men’s One-day International World Cup. Mr Naqvi stated this week that the upgradation work in stadiums across the country was aimed at holding the women’s tournament in a befitting manner. Playing host will give a boost to women’s cricket in the country; Pakistan has already witnessed the positive impact it has on the team. Pakistan held the qualifiers for last year’s Women’s ODI World Cup and won all the matches to book a spot at the tournament in India and Sri Lanka. Home-ground advantage then spurred India to their maiden Women’s World Cup crown last year.

But the impact of hosting goes far beyond performance on the pitch. Most importantly, it inspires future generations. Witnessing a tournament so closely will inspire young girls to take up the sport, increasing participation from the grassroots. Not only that, it will also bring increased investment to women’s cricket, helping build a stronger structure, and lay a solid foundation for growth. World Cup hosting leaves behind a legacy and it is heartening to see that Mr Naqvi has made it his primary objective. With the Women’s T20 World Cup in focus, it is also expected that the development will be a push towards the launch of the women’s edition of the Pakistan Super League. That will be a significant step towards equal opportunity and pay parity between men and women players in the country.

Published in Dawn, January 5th, 2026