Express Tribune Editorials 15th September 2026

Rethinking relief

THE prime minister’s decision to subsidise petrol purchases for motorcycle and small-car owners is understandable amid consumer outcry against high fuel rates. But it is unlikely to offer much relief.

The Rs75bn package may sound substantial but is barely a fraction of annual petrol sales. Its reach will be narrower because eligibility depends on conditions such as vehicle and SIM ownership. A monthly subsidy of Rs2,000 for motorcycles and Rs3,000 for small cars may help households, but cannot shield them from sustained global oil price increases. Nor does it assist those who rely on public transport. The question that arises is whether the government is trying to soften the political impact of another fuel price shock.

The government must rethink the relief architecture. The BISP National Socio-Economic Registry already has a mechanism to target assistance by household income. Additional support through this system would be more equitable than subsidising a particular fuel purchase. Cash transfers are preferable because recipients can decide whether they need petrol, bus fare, food or another essential. Fuel subsidies make that choice for them and risk encouraging consumption of an imported commodity when foreign exchange pressures are rising.

The demand is for a cut in the petroleum levy for broader relief. But the government has little fiscal space for that. Slashing it would create another fiscal hole. Islamabad should, instead, work with the provinces to support public transport users through targeted — and transparent — assistance.

The other problem that subsidies cannot solve concerns rising prices of food and other essentials. Fuel price hikes are passed on by transporters and traders to consumers through higher fares and commodity prices; reductions rarely produce equivalent decreases. Provincial and district administrations must monitor this asymmetric pricing more seriously. The global oil market outlook offers little comfort due to the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict. Petrol was around $135 a barrel at the end of last week, against the $120-122 benchmark underlying domestic calculations. Every $1 increase in the global benchmark is estimated to add around Rs1.80 per litre to domestic petrol prices. A sustained $10 rise in annual average oil prices could add $1bn-$1.25bn to Pakistan’s import bill, further draining scarce foreign exchange.

The pressure could intensify in winter as lower hydropower generation increases reliance on imported fuels and raises electricity costs. The government’s dilemma is clear: higher fuel prices fuel inflation and hurt households, while subsidies put pressure on imports and the fiscal deficit. It has no painless option. Relief must therefore follow need, not vehicle ownership. A poor household using public transport deserves no less consideration than a relatively better-off motorcycle or a small car owner.

Published in Dawn, September 15th, 2026

Grid disconnect

PAKISTAN is about to commit $58bn — or most of this amount — to add new, costlier power capacity it may not need. Nepra’s conditional approval of the Integrated System Plan for 2025-35 deserves closer scrutiny because the regulator’s own members have flagged the problem in their decision. All three recorded dissenting or advisory notes questioning project selection, planning assumptions, and the bypassing of the CCI. That alone should have paused the process. Instead, the plan was approved. Adding 26,045MW under a plan built on the old assumption that demand keeps climbing ignores what is actually happening on the ground. Pakistan already has far more generation capacity than it uses. Consumers are paying for that surplus through some of the region’s highest tariffs, while high power costs have made the country’s exports harder to sell abroad.

Rooftop solar has changed the sector’s fundamentals. Households, businesses and farmers are installing their own systems to escape grid electricity they can no longer afford. That shift is already cutting into national grid demand — a trend that will only accelerate as panels and batteries become cheaper. The plan’s 8,120MW net-metering estimate treats this as a fixed number in a market moving too fast. Nepra excluded $900m for battery storage pending a separate study to establish its need. This move might sound reasonable, but approving a plan with no real storage strategy, even as battery imports rise and consumers pair solar with storage to leave the grid further behind, is a mistake. Storage lets the grid soak up extra solar by day and release it at night, easing pressure on costly peak-hour plants. Without it, the solar shift hurts grid finances rather than helping them. As wealthier consumers generate their own power, utilities serve a shrinking base, spreading fixed costs — and higher bills — across fewer people. The outcome may benefit solar adopters but is a financial problem for an already overbuilt grid. ISMO has also reportedly disclaimed responsibility for the accuracy of the data behind the plan. Committing billions of dollars on projections the system operator will not stand behind is recklessness. The government should use the regulator’s own objections to reopen the plan, and build one around the grid that solar, batteries and shifting demand are already creating, not the one planners had imagined a decade ago.

Published in Dawn, September 15th, 2026

Mangroves at risk

KARACHI is losing its mangroves to encroachment.The reported cutting of mangroves and construction of bunds beside the Mangrove Biodiversity Park at Korangi Creek is alarming because the destruction appears methodical: block the tidal flow, allow the trees to dry, clear the vegetation and convert the land into a plot. That this is happening next to a park inaugurated only last year exposes the gap between official environmental rhetoric and what is allowed on the ground. Mangroves are not wasteland awaiting ‘development’. They are among Karachi’s most valuable assets. They help absorb carbon, support fish nurseries and coastal biodiversity, stabilise shorelines and reduce the force of coastal hazards. For a city already exposed to rising climate risks, destroying them is an act of self-harm.

The Sindh government cannot treat this as an ordinary land dispute and wait indefinitely for competing departments or courts to resolve the matter while the ecosystem is destroyed. If the Forest Department maintains that the land is its property and that the allotments are illegal, the provincial government must establish the facts, defend the land in court and ensure that no further alteration takes place in the interim. The Board of Revenue, Forest Department, police and district administration must act together, instead of hiding behind jurisdictional excuses. Temporary protective orders, monitoring of vulnerable creek areas and criminal action against those cutting or poisoning mangroves should be pursued wherever the law allows. The government should also map encroachments along Karachi’s coastline and make the record available. Sindh has repeatedly celebrated mangrove restoration and plantation drives. Those efforts mean little if mature forests can be quietly killed to manufacture real estate. Protecting Karachi’s mangroves needs more than slogans. It requires the state to stop powerful interests from turning a public ecological shield into private land.

Published in Dawn, September 15th, 2026