Failed climate goal
For years, environmental activists - who understand the urgency of climate change far better than global policymakers - have rallied to prevent global temperatures from rising by 1.5 degrees C. Their warnings have, however, fallen on deaf ears. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this inaction has made overshooting 1.5 degrees C inevitable.
A recent report by the UN affiliated body titled 'Limiting Overshoot' offers this brutal reality check and outlines how "the challenge has shifted from avoiding overshoot to navigating it". The infuriating truth is that climate activists and scientists have been alerting those in positions of power to this very situation but once the time for change has passed, they can do nothing more than feign sympathy and offer condolences.
To gain an understanding of how significant a 1.5 degrees C rise would be for global climate, one simply needs to recall that water is liquid at 1oC and solid at 0 degree C. The destruction that climate change brings upon the world may not be linear enough for the world to gain time to adapt. It can absolutely be sudden, and the inevitability of overshooting 1.5 degrees C only raises that possibility further.
Countries in the Global South need to be much more vigilant of this reality. The impact of rising temperatures and, consequently, melting glaciers, collapsing ice sheets and the disruption to marine life will primarily be endured by us before it even gets the chance to move on to colder climates and richer nations. Nepal is a recent and highly devastating example of this impact.
At the very least, Pakistan must adopt its own climate policy that tackles global warming in the context of its own region. Building climate-friendly architecture and reducing carbon emissions - while also pressuring the West to curtail its own emissions - should now be nothing short of a high-level priority.
A war without a mandate
Days after plunging his country into a war with Iran at the behest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump claimed that hostilities would be over in four or five weeks. Instead, the war is now in its seventh month, oil prices are up, US GDP growth is down, and inflation has erased all wage growth over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, the Iranians continue to show great resilience despite heavy losses, US military readiness has been significantly depleted, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has apparently fired a generation of senior military officers for daring to disagree with him on military strategy.
Hegseth touts himself as an expert on warfare, though his active military service consists of a year as a prison guard, a few months as an infantryman in Iraq, and a stint as an instructor in Afghanistan. The men he fired had dozens of years each of active service in war zones. Hegseth also bankrupted a charity after allegedly embezzling from it, barred from serving as a guard for President Biden because of his suspected white nationalist sympathies, and successfully lobbied for war criminals to receive presidential pardons. And since he is a Trump sycophant, it apparently makes him the only person qualified to run the US military.
But despite this, it appears the American public is finally catching on. Trump's popularity is currently at its lowest level, even among Republicans, and a clear majority of Americans oppose the Iran War. In response to the historically unpopular war, Trump has started a trade war with Canada - once considered America's closest ally. Unfortunately for Trump, it appears he is losing this one as well, as only 20% of Americans support his tariffs, and only 14% support his renaming of Lake Ontario to Lake America.
The president's refusal to ever accept fault and admit defeat means that Americans must force the decision in the November elections. But even if the Democrats - as predicted - retake control of Congress, the situation will continue to devolve until new members are seated in January.
Dual-tranche Euro bond
Pakistan's forex reserves got a shot in the arm as the country raised $3 billion through a dual-tranche Eurobond. This unprecedented success comes on the heels of renewed confidence exhibited by lenders in macroeconomic reforms and the stringent implementation of the IMF's programme. It is the largest single international capital market transaction achieved from a broad and diversified base of institutional investors across global markets and continents. The breakdown of the issuance includes $1.75 billion through a 5.5-year bond at a coupon rate of 7.5 per cent, and $1.25 billion through a 10-year bond at 7.9%.
After almost a decade, Islamabad has been able to float and sell its sovereign paper commitments in the market at a half-percentage-point lower interest rate. Panda Bonds to the tune of $500 million and the Global Medium-Term Note initiative have been other success stories, alongside the fact that the government has been able to settle maturities in due time. This confidence in the currency market must now serve to reassure investors that Pakistan is a preferred geopolitical destination for big-ticket businesses.
Pakistan has proven that it can mobilise long-term financing, as is evident from the 10-year Eurobond. This development, however, coincides with the bitter truth that the country's total debt has crossed Rs100 trillion, raising doubts about its stabilisation efforts. Had it not been for remittances from expatriates and the financial succor from the Gulf States and China, the balance sheet would have been terrible. Facing heavy debt repayments and cuts in developmental outlay, Pakistan has been struggling with a fiscal deficit of around 5% of GDP and a growth rate of less than 3% over the last three years.
The way forward is to manage debt accumulation by generating plausible new avenues of income and tapping into export markets. At the very least, there is an urgent need to recraft the economic model to bridge the financing gap. Tapping the bond market, as and when required, is a healthy sign for reigniting confidence with global financial institutions.