Fragile Calm Restored – Agha Zuhaib Khan

Pakistan and Afghanistan Step Back from the Brink After a Week of Violence

A Fragile Calm Returns to the Borderlands

The ceasefire agreement reached in Doha, Qatar, last night is considered by the parties involved as the way out they have long been waiting for. However, regional experts warn that this kind of very delicate peace is only a temporary relief in the storm unless Pakistan and Afghanistan take joint action to address not only the issue of militant sanctuaries in Afghanistan but also other problems.

Doha Ceasefire: A Hopeful Pause in the Conflict

The talks in Doha resulted in a major diplomatic breakthrough when Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to a long-term ceasefire. Both sides pledged to hold talks and to cooperate to solve the issue of cross-border militancy, which has been the toughest problem of their relations for a long time.

Top officials of the two governments were present at the meeting, and the negotiation was facilitated by the mediators from Qatar and Turkiye. According to diplomatic sources, both Islamabad and Kabul came to the conclusion that the ongoing conflict is what terrorist groups operating in the region will profit from and thus it will become more difficult to establish peace.

The decision to the ceasefire comes before the understanding that both Pakistan and Afghanistan will continue their talks, disengage from military activities, and construct the framework for sharing the intelligence gathered.

Mediation Efforts by Qatar and Turkiye

Qatar and Turkiye once again demonstrated their peacemaking skills in a region that is always on edge, South Asia. Without their joint diplomatic initiatives, it would have been impossible to see Pakistan and Afghanistan sitting together after weeks of blaming each other and border fighting.

After both countries reminded the Taliban in Kabul that they could not afford to lose contact and dialogue and by exercising their close relationship with the regime, they succeeded in convincing them to act reasonably and attend the talks. In fact, Qatar, which held talks between the U.S. and Taliban that eventually led to their peace accord, continues to mediate between the Taliban and other countries. Turkiye, on the other hand, has been very friendly with both Pakistan and Afghanistan, thus, a logical mediator.

After the next round of talks in Istanbul, they will discuss not only permanent border control but also exchanging information to stop terrorists who will then cross the border unseen.

Strained Pakistan-Taliban Relations

After the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, Taliban-Pakistan relations have gone downhill. They are not on the same side of the argument anymore as before, which is likely the result of a fallout between the two.

At first, Islamabad was happy with the Taliban power grab and believed that it would bring peace to the western border. However, in a matter of weeks, the positive trend was reversed as the number of attacks inside Pakistan exploded. The Pakistani authorities seem to think that the Taliban-controlled government is the real culprit in the matter of aid to the extremist groups as it has allowed them to operate freely; among these groups is Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) responsible for killing hundreds in the past few years.

As a result of this dramatic change, Pakistan, as a state that has been a staunch supporter of the Taliban, now finds itself in a predicament where it is threatened by enemies from the other side of the border.

Sanctuaries for the TTP and Other Militant Groups

One of the major security risks perceived by Pakistan is the potential existence of hideouts for terror groups in the neighboring country of Afghanistan. The outlawed TTP along with other jihadi groups are said to have sought refuge in the mountainous region after the Pakistani military’s came upon their bases inside Pakistan and therethey they killed and arrested their members.

Taliban promises notwithstanding, these groups keep conducting attacks on the other side of the border. Pakistani security sources have said that the movement areas of militants are not really different in both sides of the border which is only PK-Afghani wise ill-operated border security allows them to an exploiting them.

Through different sources, it has been discovered that TTP discontents plan to have their safe havens in the different Eastern provinces of Afghanistan where they can direct militant activities and logistically receive support with ease.

Rising Wave of Terrorism in Pakistan

Last year was filled with terrorist attacks that spread like wildfire throughout Pakistan. More than 600 incidents leading to losses of lives and in property of both civilians and security personnel were recorded, as per the reports of security officials.

The sources of these attacks have been targeted at police stations, military checkpoints, and public gatherings, especially in the provinces, which are bordering Afghanistan. The violent return has squeezed the security apparatus of Pakistan and the people’s wrath against Kabul for not delivering on its counterterrorism promises has been rekindled.

The analysts speculate that the Taliban’s stubbornness or their incapability to identify and disarm these groups agitates the bond between them more.

Pakistan’s Retaliatory Strikes Inside Afghanistan

Without the cooperation of the other party, Pakistan has sometimes gone beyond the brink and taken a few steps on its own territory. The Pakistani army, earlier this year, did some precision airstrikes on some militants’ hideouts in the Afghan region and said that it was a move for self-defense.

It is said that the operations targeted the TTP leaders, while the Afghan Taliban criticized the moves as breaches of sovereignty. The situations deteriorated the relations further and thus, fears of a war between the countries increased.
After the Doha agreement, Pakistan has suggested that it would be willing to keep such operations on hold if Kabul assured that it would not be the base for terrorists.

Balancing Military Action with Diplomacy

Pakistan is in a very delicate situation and according to experts in this field, the arabian country must cope with deterrence and diplomacy simultaneously. The use of force in the military might lead to the disappearance of the threat in the short term but only through discourse and collaboration can a lasting peace be realized.

If only military means are used there is a risk of escalation of tensions and the possibility that Afghanistan will turn its back on them completely. At the same time, if they continue doing nothing the militant groups will feel more confident. The challenge for the government in Islamabad is to find the right position- stay prepared for defense on one hand and have substantial talks with the Taliban on the other.
Taliban’s Pledge for Non-Aggression.

After the Doha meetings, the Taliban regime made a commitment that they would not allow any “hostile actions”against Pakistan originating from the Afghan territory. Nevertheless, Pakistan is still very skeptical since such commitments made in the past were broken shortly after.
The complication of the matter arises from the different points of view of the Taliban also. In the movement there are some factions which sympathize with the TTP while there are others which support the idea of peace with Pakistan. The Taliban’s pledges at Doha might turn into empty words if their leadership does not strictly supervise control over these factions.

Proposal for a Verification Mechanism

After the terrible terror attacks, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar suggested putting together a joint verification and monitoring system. To make sure there was a ceasefire and counterterrorism agreement, and to check if the security forces were carrying out their duties properly, Mr. Dar proposed this system.

Under the proposed arrangement, the parties would share intelligence, conduct regular border inspections, and have transparent reporting channels. If this framework were embraced by the parties involved, it might pave the way for new patterns of collaboration in the region. It would enable two sides not only to check on each other’s good faith but also to lower the possibility of incidents that fuel the resurgence of hostilities at the border with which both parties accuse each other.

Global Recognition of Taliban’s Responsibility

The international community is now turning its eyes toward the fact that Afghanistan is the main base of different kinds of radical groups. The United States, China, and the European Union altogether have sent a clear message to the Taliban that if they want to avoid cross-border violence, they should first and foremost ensure their area is safe for it not to occur.

Such an agreement inevitably brings the responsibility as well as the authority of the front-line holder under the limelight. In addition to being left without friends, Afghanistan becomes a danger not only for the neighborhood but for the whole world if the situation escalates further.

Different Militant Factions, Different Loyalties

There are discrepancies even among those who join the Taliban voices in Afghanistan’s military struggle. In particular, some such as Al-Qaeda and TTP might still keep in touch or acknowledge the Taliban’s leadership whilst on the contrary, groups mainly like IS- K are defiant and even hostile to them.

IS-K on the one hand has tortured and killed the Taliban forces and in the meantime has staged attacks on the foreign missions in Afghanistan. With such a situation, Kabul finds itself in a defensive dilemma from both within and without- it now has to fight an insurgency bringing diplomatic pressure from its neighboring countries as well.

The Taliban’s Role as a Governing Power

Being the de facto rulers in Afghanistan, morally the Taliban should be the ones who guarantee that their land will neither be a place for their neighbors’ harm nor for hostile activities against them. A secure Afghanistan does not only mean stability for the region but also increases peace, trade, and economic growth in the future.

The extent to which a group is recognized by the global community depends on how well it carries out its responsibilities. Allowing militant hideouts to continue without any intervention may result in alienation, economic decay, and losing the integrity of the global arena.

The Road Ahead: Hope Mixed with Caution

The Doha ceasefire is a move that brings some brightness to a pretty dark time of ongoing conflicts in the area. However, we cannot allow ourselves to be too optimistic and should rather acknowledge the situation as it really is. Throughout the history of the region, it can be seen that agreements regarding peace tend to be short-lived unless they are backed by the leaders’ strong will and proper enforcement measures.
From a diplomatic point of view, Pakistan could benefit greatly from this episode by re-establishing a relationship with Afghanistan which would be based not on mistrust but on mutual regional stability. For the Taliban, it means proving their capability to govern and take responsibility at the international level.

Conclusion: Opportunity for Peace Despite the Uncertainty

It is certainly the ceasefire anew between Pakistan and Afghanistan which is a move towards the right direction, albeit a delicate one and hence requiring care. The two countries should collectively reign in their shared frontier instead of pointing fingers at each other.
Peace in South Asia cannot be sustained without these elements: confidence-building, collaboration, and strong measures against terrorism. The entire planet is observing—and a fiasco cannot be contemplated this time.