Express Tribune Editorials 2nd January 2026

Strength in numbers?

Pakistan’s increasing population demands long-term planning, not short-term fixes

According to UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, Pakistan has now officially become the world's fifth most populous country. In almost eight decades, its population has risen from a meagre 33.7 million to a Herculean 255 million, divided between four provinces: Sindh, Balochistan, Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, along with the federally administered Islamabad Capital Territory. The population census does not include Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

Rapid population growth in this South Asian country has long been an alarming issue as Pakistan deals with its fair share of resource scarcity, mounting climate vulnerabilities, gender inequality, poverty and widespread illiteracy — all amidst still high fertility rates. Purely on paper, the country is not well equipped to serve its mammoth population. But the population is relatively young, with an average age of 25.6 years and a steadily improving trend in labour market participation.

This means that despite the problem of brain drain, Pakistan still has an active and skilled youth force at its disposal and if effectively trained, the country can leverage its population to be "a strategic driver of sustainable and inclusive development", as said by UNFPA Pakistan. The organisation also underlined the need not to view its population reality as a burden but rather as an opportunity, and to keep this reality at the forefront of future decisions regarding national planning and financing.

Therefore, it is important that going forward, Pakistan adopts a positive approach towards progress and concentrates its administrative responsibilities and fund allocation towards goals that offer long-term relief as opposed to short-term fixes — something that has been a persistent problem. This is the only way the country can meaningfully stabilise itself against the test of time that is bound to bring resource challenges, climate disasters and an inequitable socioeconomic environment.

Beyond the thumbprint

Broader biometric recognition marks a structural shift in Pakistan’s digital state

For years, Pakistan's digital governance architecture has been held hostage by a stubborn over-reliance on a single, fallible biometric marker on the other. The federal government's decision to amend the National Identity Card Rules to legally recognise facial and iris scans — alongside fingerprints — marks a long-overdue correction to this imbalance.

This is a major structural reform that is not just welcomed but also signals a more humane approach to digital identity. Its phased rollout — already covering vehicle transfers and online passport applications, and with time, proof-of-life certificates for federal pensioners — shows administrative intent. Regulation that has finally caught up with technological possibility, it seems. That said, the success of this reform will hinge less on Nadra's readiness — which it claims to have ensured — and more on the willingness and capacity of public and private institutions to adapt. Banks, telecom operators, housing authorities and other service providers have historically been slow, if not reluctant, to upgrade hardware and software unless compelled to do so. Nadra's call for regulators and institutions to progressively align their systems is therefore prudent.

The two-phase upgrade plan — first software integration and then camera installation or KYC machine enhancement — must not become another bureaucratic excuse for delay. If institutions fail to comply, the burden will once again fall on citizens, who may find themselves shuttling between service providers and Nadra centres despite the reform's stated objective of convenience.

Ultimately, the expansion of biometric definitions will be the true litmus test of whether Pakistan's digital state can be inclusive as well as efficient. If implemented in letter and spirit, the move could finally retire the tyranny of the thumbprint and restore dignity to millions who have been systemically inconvenienced by a narrow conception of identity. That would be a fitting way to begin the year.

The tax lacunae

FBR misses targets again, raising fears of fresh indirect taxes on an already strained middle class

The tax machinery, whose laxity is an undeniable truth, has once again failed to meet the revenue collection target for the first half of the ongoing fiscal year. The FBR has missed the target by Rs330 billion, despite taking a leap on the last day of the outgoing calendar year by netting a staggering Rs391 billion. It is ironic to note that the original shortfall was around Rs545 billion, as it pooled Rs6.16 trillion during the July-December period. That has led to speculations of a mini-budget specifically targeting business in solar panels, mobile phones and bank account holders. In other words, commoners and the enterprising middle class will have to pay for the inefficiency of babus.

It is, moreover, distressing to note that the government, rather than reprimanding the tax sleuths, has assured the IMF that it will, somehow, collect Rs200 billion in additional indirect taxation to make up for the slippages. The brunt again will fall on the common man. The back-up measure reportedly includes increasing the withholding tax on cash withdrawals to 1.5% — an increase of almost 100%.

The sordid collection equation can be judged from the fact that the Fund had slashed Rs214 billion in revenue collection to adjust the impact of the depreciation in growth and the devastating floods. Yet the FBR was found ducking. It paid 47% fewer refunds in December compared to a year ago, accounting for a monthly shortfall of Rs20 billion. Last but not least, an attempt to scrutinise the loss-laden exporters on their tax returns on suspicion of under-invoicing has not gone well with the business community.

The way forward is to overhaul the tax bureau and carry out reforms. The Prime Minister's assurance to address vulnerabilities identified by the IMF in its Governance and Corruption report is a promising move. The proposed 142-point agenda for institutional building and rule of law must see the light of day to avoid a repeat of Rs5.3 trillion embezzlement, as pointed out by the Fund against recoveries made by NAB. Digitising the economy and holding tax collectors to account are indispensable measures.