Ukraine Peace Requires More Than Trust

Ukraine Peace Requires More Than Trust

Ukraine Peace Requires More Than Trust: Why Putin Must Be Verified

Ukraine Peace Requires More Than Trust The​‍​‌‍​‍‌ only way to end the war will be not by blind faith to Russian promises, but trust, yet verify.
On Sunday, CNN's Fareed Zakaria pointed out
what many had been saying: Could it be that the Trump administration misjudges the Russian President Vladimir Putin
altogether?
In the first place, Vladimir Putin is a Russian nationalist whose professional experience in the Soviet intelligence services molded his notion of power, which is very much a matter of hiding and deception, playing on weaknesses with utmost tact, etc. Putin's goal is to weaken the US and the international order.
This can be seen worldwide. According to a The Financial Times article, Russia has helped Iran in secret
develop an advanced supersonic cruise-missile tech. Russia has supported
the Venezuelan government, and its grip in the continent has strengthened via deploying propaganda and disinformation while also using force and natural resources as a weapon. If one is to engage in diplomacy with Putin, one has to see how he looks at things from his side. He values strong people, carefully observes if there are weaknesses he can exploit, and he knows that sometimes diplomacy is a way of winning rather than of losing.
However, probably the more fascinating part of Zakaria’s segment was when Iryna Chechotkina
, one of the co-founders of Ukrainian e-commerce giant Rozetka, took to the witness stand.
She had set up a $70 million
logistic center just near Kiev which employed about 1,000 workers and was the hub of tens of thousands of Ukrainian traders. That warehouse was the result of many years of labor and sacrifice. To Iryna, who is the mother of four, it was also the evidence of time lost with her kids as she was busy making a future for her country. Ukraine Peace Requires More Than Trust
Three Russian missiles, however, turned it into ashes. In a minute, man-made work got burnt to smoke and twisted metal. She didn’t choose to directly talk to Putin, but spoke to the rest of the world, "Please help me save our skies so that Ukrainians can sleep and live in peace, that children can attend school and that the businesses can resume operation and we no longer live in bombs’ shelters or are constantly aware of air-raid alerts and in fact our men do not give their lives anymore."
We are left with a hard decision, she pointed out.
Is Europe going to continue the fight on a potential nuclear superpower without a clearly obtainable political purpose in sight?
Are they planning to deepen the conflict and in exchange, risk a war between Russia and NATO
?
Do they not mind that much as another part of Ukraine is destroyed?
Will negotiations be the better way?
Actually, this is not a matter of whether there is peace by knowing and being known to Putin or not. We don’t get to know the internal debates within Donald
's team, for that matter. However, a real American approach must never think of Putin in a non-reflective or non-ethical manner as trustworthy or just a nice man, in the first place. In effect, the question boils down to whether diplomatic efforts underpinned by coercive diplomacy can put a halt to further destruction in Ukraine.
No one can argue that the whole point of a negotiation is blind trust.
In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan
managed a breakthrough in his relations with Mikhail Gorbachev,
a former president of the Soviet Union, which culminated in their agreement to the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Ukraine Peace Requires More Than Trust
They even managed a complete elimination of entire missile classes by way of verification measures that were unheard-of at the time.
So, basically, what one has to do is to find out what is trustworthy and verify the rest, says a famous saying.
What we have to be realistic is that the negotiation is the way to go, but that does not mean the two sides will agree without a fight.
As a matter of fact, President Reagan, when he signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
, was just a man who said that we need to trust, but always verify. The only realistic way at this moment would be to make a similar kind of effort. That could even include the use of nuclear weapons or something else to make it work!
Of course, in the end, what we are talking about really is the trust issue.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s background at KGB would never have made him trustworthy in any negotiations. On the other, the idea of using an arms race by one side and disarm race by others as a tool is not something that can be done by a trustful side of the ​‍​‌‍​‍‌equation.
According​‍​‌‍​‍‌ to my most recent article
in The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune, this war has to be stopped. Not, however, due to any unrealistic hope. Any serious settlement will have to include these five basic principles.
First, civilians and critical infrastructure must no longer be targets and this should be followed by a general ceasefire supervised by means of intelligence, satellites, and international observers.
To begin with, a mutual cessation of hostilities should not come with the condition of Ukrainian, or its allies', recognition of the Russian sovereignty over occupied territories. There is a difference between military control and legal sovereignty. The issue of the territorial status can be left unsolved without being surrendered to.
Then, Ukraine must remain sovereign, economically sustainable, and able to defend itself. The security guaranties should include air defenses, intelligence cooperation, and predetermined assistance in case another Russian attack is launched.
Apart from that, normalization of Russia’s position cannot be fast-tracked by the West after they start talking. It is only after a proper compliance has been verified that the lifting of sanctions can happen and in the event of a major breach, the sanctions should restart automatically. The West has to ensure there are no major concessions that can be withdrawn at Russia’s side in order to get a Russian promise that would be just as easily unkept.
Meanwhile, when feasible, reconstruction must become a major priority. If Ukrainian ports, energy networks, and economy lie in ruin, sovereignty will not hold its ground in reality. In the longer term, protected commercial corridors, Black Sea navigation, and supervised investment should make both people interested in stability. Obviously, the objective must never be to bring Ukraine to depend on Russia again, but at least to make another war more expensive.
US peace envoy Jared Kushner
doesn’t have a mandate to fix the trust deficit instantly. As he does the negotiations
, Kushner, the US special envoy for peace, needs to find out if practical areas of interest can be identified to help Russians and Ukrainians stick to an agreement, be it a temporary one, even in face of each other’s deep-seated hatreds. Such a proposition has to be given the chance. Security-related measures will prevent the risk of aggression, whereas economic and human interests may serve as a motivation that keeps both groups of people averse to war again.
The overall idea that should be the base when working with Putin is pretty clear-cut: test, check with the fact on the ground, and act accordingly. Exertion of pressure should go together with the delivery of benefits only upon demonstrating a good track record. Violations consequences should be explained in advance so nobody gets blindsided.
Iryna’s appeal is focusing us on the issue of a major importance: can a whole country recapture control of its destiny? Diplomacy cannot reshape Putin’s personality. But if there is disciplined work at the governmental level, this will restrict Putin’s options, making his renewed aggression more expensive, and create conditions for Ukrainians to finally be beyond the warfare. Ukraine Peace Requires More Than Trust